These changes reflect polling data gathered by yesterday afternoon. Official projections for Senate, House, and Governors races have not been tabulated. Also, I have not posted the
formulae for this cycle yet. All of this is coming together and will be posted shortly, on or before Election Projection's website relaunch scheduled for June 1.
Fifty-state tour: West Virginia
Victories in this state by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 came as a mild surprise given West Virginia's traditional Democratic leaning.
Bush did twice in close elections what his father could not do in his landslide 1988 triumph. Senator John McCain appears likely at the moment to win West
Virginia for the GOP again this year, though the race will probably be a bit closer.
Even so, Democrats still hold a considerable amount of sway in this largely blue-collar state. Both long-time Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller, IV and
first-term Democratic Governor Joe Manchin, II will cruise to landslide victories.
The West Virginia House delegation of one Republican and two Democrats will see all three incumbents gain another term in November, barring a real surprise upset
of Republican Shelley Capito in district 2. She the only congressperson the least bit vulnerable.
You can find lots more information on the West Virginia state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:30pm 05/08/08
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Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Wednesday night hodge-podge
I've got several items to share with everyone this evening. Rather than separating them into different entries, I decided to put them
all in one. Here goes...
Bad night for The Blogging Caesar last night: It was a great night for Barack Obama who effectively shut the door on any realistic chance of Hillary
Clinton taking the nomination. In the process, however, his performance in both primaries (Indiana and North Carolina) landed the actual outcomes quite a ways
from my predictions. To top it off, my man Fred Smith lost his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in North Carolina. Oh well, as I wrote a reader
who emailed in, now it's time to turn toward the general election in November - "GO PAT!!" (McCrory).
Emails from readers: I recently perused my large cache of emails and found that many of you have sent in emails that have gone unanswered. I
apologize for failing to respond. Over the next several weeks, I'm going to try to catch up. Don't be surprised if you get a response soon to an email you
sent me months ago - and then again, don't be surprised if you don't, heh heh.
Numbers tracking: With the conclusion of the fifty-state tour just a hair's breadth away, I will soon begin in earnest your Election Projection - 2008
Edition, complete with revised formulas (where needed), daily poll reports, and race tracking. Thanks for your patience as I've trudged my way through all the
preliminary evaluations. They will be complete by the weekend, and then the real election season commences!
Website redesign: This is something I'm very excited about. I've begun a redesign of the website that should be ready to launch very soon.
It will combine the good things about Election Projection with some additional cool features. Stay tuned...
Upcoming interview: As part of the launch of the new website design, I will be posting an interview with Melanie Taylor. Ms. Taylor is a
helicopter pilot who flew Blackhawks during multiple tours of duty in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, she was in Iraq when my parents went home to be with
the Lord. She has a fascinating story you won't want to miss!
I am looking forward with great anticipation to what is sure to be a thrilling ride to Election Day, November 4th. I hope you'll share it with me here at
Election Projection - 2008 Edition.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:45pm 05/07/08
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Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Websites for tonight's returns
To view the returns as they come in this evening, I suggest these sites...
Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary
North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
Other Indiana Primary Races
Other North Carolina Primary Races
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:45pm 05/06/08
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Predictions for North Carolina and Indiana
I predict the results in the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic primaries will be exact mirror images of one another. A six-point
margin in both states. And the beat (Hillary) will go on...
| Indiana |
Hillary Clinton 53% |
Barack Obama 47% |
| North Carolina |
Barack Obama 53% |
Hillary Clinton 47% |
The Political Tipster has posted his picks for Indiana and
North Carolina.
Kingdom of Chaos' predictions are here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00am 05/06/08
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Monday, May 5, 2008
Vote tomorrow for Fred Smith in North Carolina
If you are a registered
Republican in my home state of North Carolina, I am asking you to vote for Fred Smith for Governor in tomorrow's primary election. He is a solid fiscal and
social conservative who will bring responsible and common sense convictions to the job of managing this great state. During his time in the State Senate, he has
sponsored the Taxpayer Protection Act which would require responsible, efficient use of the money North Carolinians send to Raleigh and co-sponsored the Defense of
Marriage Act which would preserve North Carolina's definition of marriage as between one woman and one man.
We here in North Carolina have a chance to elect a tried and true conservative as our governor. Polls are showing rival Republican Pat McCrory's
double-digit lead dwindling to a dead heat. A long-shot just a couple weeks ago, Fred Smith now has a real shot at the nomination. With your help, he can
win the primary and carry his legitimate conservative message on to the general election. Clear vision, straight talk. Proven conservative
leadership. That's what this man offers the people of North Carolina. So, please, get out there tomorrow and cast your vote for Fred Smith.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:50pm 05/05/08
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Poll: How many GOP House seats will there be in 2009?
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Most folks believe the GOP will lose seats in the Senate this year.
That sentiment was reflected in the poll I posted a couple weeks ago. How about the House? Will the losses mount in the lower chamber as well? How
many seats do you think the GOP will lose there? Perhaps you see the GOP reversing the trend and gaining seats. Whatever you believe, please be sure
to participate in this week's poll. As always, it is located in the right sidebar.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00pm 05/05/08
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Sunday, May 4, 2008
Another one bites the dust
There were two special elections held yesterday in Louisiana. Both seats were previously held by Republicans. After yesterday, only
one will be. The contest in Louisiana's CD-1 was not expected to be close, and such was the case. However, CD-6 was another situation. The polls
going into Election Day showed the Democratic candidate, Don Cazayoux, ahead of Republican Woody Jenkins. They were right, and the Democrats now enjoy a
House majority which has grown overnight. One after another, the Democrats are picking off close races in these off-season elections. Is the blue wave
from 2006 still going strong? Will it produce another GOP bloodbath in November? We'll see, but this conservative Republican is beginning to wonder.
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:20pm 05/04/08
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Thursday, May 1, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Washington
Welcome to the "Rematch State." One of the most-covered, most-controversial races in 2004 was the gubernatorial matchup between Democrat
Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi. A nail-biter of the highest degree, that race wasn't decided until a substantial number of lost votes in Seattle's
King County were mysteriously found, pushing Gregoire ahead by just 133 votes. It took three recounts and a court battle to finally seal the outcome.
Shortly after she was sworn in, polls showed Rossi way ahead of her in a hypothetical rematch. But time has passed since then, and the Governor has performed
well in the minds of Washingtonians. There will be a rematch between Gregoire and Rossi, but this time the climate favors the Democrat. It will still be
exciting, but The Blogging Caesar gives Gregoire the slight nod - Weak DEM Hold.
The gubernatorial race is not the only rematch on tap. In 2006, another hotly-contested race took place in district 8. Republican Dave Reichert narrowly
bested former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner, becoming one of just a few GOPers nationwide to survive a strong Democratic challenge. Ms. Burner is back for
another go at it. Expect another very close race and another term for Reichert. The Blogging Caesar start this race out as a Weak GOP
Hold.
None of the other congressional races here should be very competitive. However, the rematch theme remains as no less than three other districts will
feature the same two candidates from 2006.
The Washington state page has much more for your enjoyment.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 05/01/08
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Virginia
This state is moving inch by inch ever week away from the South and into the Northeast. Of course, I'm talking demographically here, not
geographically. As the population around Washington DC explodes, the increase has ushered in a much more liberal group of folks. If this trend continues,
Virginia will look more like its northern neighbor, Maryland, than its southern neighbor, North Carolina, in the future. In fact, it would probably the more
accurate to replace the word 'if' with the word 'as' in the previous sentence.
The question then becomes when will this transistion reach critical mass and flip Virginia to blue? We may see that point reached this year, although I
suspect we are still one or two election cycles away. You can count on Virginia to be a battleground state this year, but The Blogging Caesar thinks John
McCain will take it by a Weak GOP margin.
One thing that may prove me wrong on that one is what could be called a "reverse coattails effect." Down-ticket contests favor the Democrats, starting with
the race for retiring GOP Senator John Warner's seat. With uber-popular Democrat and former Governor Mark Warner trouncing his fellow ex-Governor Jim Gilmore
in the polls, the Democratic nominee for president could realize at least a slight tailwind from Warner's likely strong performance. Warner's presumed victory
is among the most certain Democratic takeovers of the cycle. Unless Gilmore finds a miracle on the way to the voting booth, this one will be a
Strong DEM Gain.
The good news doesn't stop there for Democrats in Virginia. Looking at the House races, the blue team has a good chance to cut into the GOP's 8-3
congressional advantage. District 11, situated in the increasingly liberal Northern Virginia area, is presently held by Republican Tom Davis. He is
retiring at the end of this term, leaving an open GOP seat vulnerable to a rising opposing demographic. This race will be very tight, but The Blogging Caesar
thinks the political landscape lends itself to a Weak DEM Gain here. Beyond 11, Congresswoman Thelma Drake in district 2
is also somewhat vulnerable, but she should retain her seat.
This should be an exciting year in Virginia, so you'll want to check out the Virginia state page frequently.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:10am 04/30/08
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Vermont
Even though Vermont is among the most liberal states in the country, GOP Governor James Douglas has been elected for two terms so far.
He seeks a third two-year stint in the Governor's Mansion this year and should easily succeed in getting it. His top-of-the-ticket GOP colleague, John McCain,
will not fare so well. Vermont will go for the Democratic nominee in a rout.
Check out the Vermont state page for more information.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:20pm 04/29/08
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Poll: Is John McCain the strongest GOP nominee?
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Now that John McCain has secured more than enough delegates to claim
the GOP nomination, I thought I'd ask this audience who you think would be (or would have been) the strongest opponent against either Hillary Clinton or Barack
Obama. I know some may have done better against one than the other, but I want to know who you think the best choice overall would be (or would have
been). The poll is located in the right sidebar. Please be sure to cast your vote.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:30am 04/28/08
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