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Projecting the upcoming elections and commenting on things along the way... |
Election Projection
2004 Edition | |
Political Weblog |
2004 Election Projection |
Projection Formula |
State-by-state Analysis |
The Blogging Caesar Bio |
Reader Comments |
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Election Projection 2004
Click on the map for details Last updated: 11/02/04 |
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Final Projected Tally:
Electoral Votes: Bush 289, Kerry 249 Popular Vote: Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7% |
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Bert B. -
I love your site...soooooo much fun to come and visit.
As a lifelong resident of New Jersey, voting Republican has always been an exercise of exquisite futility for me. I agree that Kerry may very well win here, but there is an outside chance for a Bush upset. Seven counties went for Bush in the 2000 election. Gore won the state by a whopping half-million votes. At the same time, Sen Corzine (D) won his seat by beating Rep. Franks by barely 90,000 votes. Corzine overwhelmed Franks with a $60 million dollar war chest. So much for coat-tails. This state had the bedroom communities for the World Trade Center. Heck, my town is a two-hour commute from the city and we still lost people. This state is working class, the state of "notfernuttin'", and "fagetabadit", and a state with two very distinct demographics...north and south. Our Governor is in a financial jam and raising taxes. Unemployment is not a serious problem at 5%, and people are still [mad] over 911. We won't forget that day. 911 will be huge here. I think that the Senate race showed a gathering weakness in the hold the Dems have on New Jersey. McGreevy (D-Gov), Corzine (D), and Lautenberg (D) don't have the deep support they thought they would have. A strong foreign policy is a big hot-button issue here. A current real-time Asbury Park Press web based Bush vs. Kerry poll is split 48/51. Could be our year. I hope so. I'm so glad you like the site. It seems to have connected with a lot of political fans out there. I'm sure it must be depressing
to vote for the good guys in a state like New Jersey. Don't give up the fight, though, New Jersey might just be in play come November. If Bush can get
his job approval numbers up to 60 or so by November, we'll see a huge landslide. A landslide that might include a red New Jersey. Even without that,
every vote counts. Remember 2000 - the last thing we need is another election where the Dems win the popular vote.
It'll be really interesting to see what effect 9/11 has on the vote this year. I agree with your assessment that New Jersey stands to see one of the
biggest GOP bumps as a result. All the more reason to get out to the polls! - The Blogging Caesar, 02/15/04 Albert G. -
I am really enjoying your website and your projections. I presently live in PA and I have been doing something very similar to your
formula since I was in high school ( 1960's). Among the Bush states from 2000, the only real concerns I have are NH, Ohio, W VA, and Nevada. I think in
the end Bush will take them all and narrowly win. I have friends in Minnesota who are farmers and tell me that Bush is very popular with them which makes MN,
IA, WI all possible Bush states but I wouldn't count on it. Nevada may seem a stretch but the nuclear waste issue really ticks people off out there; on the
other hand, they are patriots by and large. I am very doubtful on PA because of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The rest of the state should be solidly
Republican. Forget NY, NJ, DE - people there just don't have much sense. I agree that Florida will be much easier for Bush this time. Anyway,
keep up the good work.
A note about the political climate this year, I don't think most people realize how much the playing field is fundamentally different from
2000 this year. I believe the starting point this year has moved considerably in Bush's favor. Barring the unforeseen disastrous, I believe Bush will
win handily. In case anybody missed it, you can read 21 reasons why I see Bush winning in this essay.
That doesn't mean we can sit back and rest, though! Bush's win will depend on the hard work and dedication of the GOP faithful. - The Blogging Caesar,
02/15/04
Duane O. -
I agree with the substance of most of your 21 reasons, but I think that the female factor cannot be overestimated. In 2000, Bush was a brash,
oil-driven Texas cowboy with a mousy little wife he kept at home, as the media portrayed it- while Al Gore got all the women to swoon over his big Tipper-kiss.
The suburban married women drifted toward the peace-loving Gore, who had to be a good guy because of his familial devotion, while Bush might be dangerous.
Since then, the moms are 1) thinking about who is most likely to protect their children from a bomb on the school bus, 2) seeing Laura's genuine ease, comfort,
and trust in her husband while still not being a dumb, barefoot, big-haired Texas airhead, 3) realizing that GW brings her coffee in bed every morning because he
simply likes and respects her just as much, and 4) gun control might not be the best way to keep the family safe.
I expect to see the soccer moms flow back to Bush unless they are on the dole for either Federal cash or preferences. Especially if Kerry is the opponent.
After people see him a bit more, they will understand why his first wife was clinically depressed. Great point about the female vote - I agree fully. It's certainly another advantage Bush will have in November. RJ -
I hope these predictions are right, Bush is awesome! I could not imagine Kerry as President.
Me, too! Yes, he is! Neither can I! - The Blogging Caesar, 02/15/04
Adam B.
what an impressive site you've got here. as a political junkie and a "numbers person" myself, i find your site really fascinating and
am looking forward to monitoring your projections throughout the 2004 election cycle. (aesthetically, the site is laid out really nicely, too.)
i only discovered your site a couple of weeks back and have been checking back often for update. what an undertaking it must be to keep on top of all this
data. (and to have come up with your model). thanks for creating this site!
hope your surgery goes well. Thank you so much for the compliments and encouragement. I'm happy to report that the surgery went well and I'm recovering very well
to this point. - The Blogging Caesar, 02/15/04
Paul C. -
Interesting reasons why George Bush will be re-elected. One small correction I think I must make, concerning these statements -
"In 2000, Al Gore enjoyed a huge advantage going into the election season. He was the sitting vice president during a time when the country was enjoying an
extended period of peace and prosperity. Even under those circumstances, the American people thought enough of George W. Bush to elect him anyway."
And this --
"Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top.
My correction is this -- Al Gore 50,999,897 votes, George W. Bush 50,456,002 votes. Dubya, of course, did NOT come out on top with the American people. The popular vote notwithstanding, Bush was elected by the American people by the very same process that elected 42 presidents before him.
In this case, "coming out on top", means losing the popular votes by a small enough margin to win a majority of the electoral votes. - The Blogging Caesar,
02/15/04
Jason E. -
Excellent website. I, too, am a Bushie and that being said, I appreciate your thoughtful comments as well as your "formula" for the
electorate. More than a Bushie, I am a Christian, and your statement of faith is the best part of you site! God Bless.
I appreciate the affirmation. My faith is certainly the most important part of my life. May God bless you, too!
Ronald P -
What a great website! I happened to stumble across it while looking for a current read on the 2004 electoral map. Its information
was so detailed and comprehensive! Please keep us updated throughout the campaign season.
Thanks a lot, Ronald! Don't you worry, my friend. God willing, I'll be updating this site regularly from now on. Veronica C -
The dreamy Republican who wrote this piece is still snoozing. The ill-gotten Bush Presidency was somewhat legitimized by the post 9-11-01
flag-waving fervor. As we continued to be distracted by the phony poll-driven war in Iraq we were not able to focus on a viable alternative to an
ethically-challenged president who rode the nepotism wave to a questionable 2000 victory. Now that 2004 is here and John F. Kerry is the likely nominee
President Bush's being AWOL is a stark contrast to a Vietnam War Hero. Your electoral predictions are correct in certain areas:
Bush will easily carry all the states in the South: THIS IS WHERE YOUR DREAM CHANGES TO REALITY!!! The remaining 10 Swing States break down this way:
Iowa and New Mexico are toss-up's and it is possible that Bush could win. Kerry will carry all 10 Swing States if Bush continues his political war in Iraq and does not improve his Herbert Hoover job loss numbers.
It's a toss-up who will win in November but I'm going with Kerry because Bush is a phony and people will see through him. The landslide Bush victory is
a GOP Pipe Dream. See you at the Kerry Inauguration on January 20, 2005! Interesting analysis. I'd have to disagree, in all humility, of course, with your conclusions. It will be so much fun this year
finding out whose right. I am sorry, though, that I won't be able to attend Kerry's Inauguration with you; I'll be busy watching Dubya's on TV instead.
- The Blogging Caesar, 02/07/04 The consensus seems to be that my Washington state prediction is wrong. Maybe so. I'll tell you one thing, though, if Bush wins a
significant victory in the popular vote nationwide (>56%), as I'm also predicting, he doesn't stand a chance of losing Washington state.
I agree with you that if, by some unforeseen weirdness, the race does go to Kerry, Ohio will be the state to get him over the top. However,
I whole-heartedly believe we don't have to worry about that. - The Blogging Caesar, 02/04/04 I was just surfing the web today when I came across your website--just the kind of thing I've been looking for, an objective, concrete analysis of American
electoral politics today.
I'll tell you now that certainly do NOT want Bush re-elected and am fervently hoping for something like a Clark-Edwards ticket. ... That's what makes something
like this site so great, though, because it lets me root for my boys to make a comeback in a clearly defined and semi-intellectual sort of way. I think
you're a bit overly optimistic on GOP chances in California and at least premature in calling two other big ones, Pennsylvania and Michigan, but as far as your
"2004 Election Projection" formula is concerned, I respect the model so long as it remains an objective experiment.
Lastly, ... I can't let you declare Oregon red without a bit of a fight. I was born and raised there, and I can tell you why it won't happen. First
of all, the economy was as hard hit there as anywhere else, spending two years in a row under Bush being #1 in unemployment. ... Furthermore, I think your
predictions for 2004, in Oregon and probably elsewhere, might be relying a little too much on voter party registration. Oregon in particular has a high number
of independents, which too many people confuse with "swing voters," or those who could be persuaded to go either way. ... In Oregon,
most self-styled independents (including myself), particularly with the strong Green Party presence there, overall lean liberal in sentiment. Nader will
probably run again, so I see two different scenarios happening in Oregon and nationwide: if in the days before the election it looks like it's going to be
a Bush landslide, the Greens will probably give up and make a symbolic vote for Nader; but if it looks close, in 2004 I expect the Naderites to come out in full
force against Bush, making things closer still.
That's nationwide. In Oregon, though, I think the combination of an ailing economy, a particularly strong antiwar sentiment, traditional liberal
strongholds in the major population centers, activist student groups at UO and Reed, and popular support for liberal programs such as doctor-assisted suicide and
medicinal marijuana will keep Oregon safely blue in 2004. First of all, thanks for your intelligent, thoughtful note. I enjoy getting responses from those with a differing viewpoint.
I appreciate that you can see the objectivity in my formula. Be assured it will remain that way. Many on the left see all that red and
immediately assume I'm a right-wing propagandist. I may be, but the formula is most definitely not!
My hunch is that the race will indeed tighten by the summer. I do see Bush picking up steam through the fall as the economy and Iraq continue to
improve. If not, Oregon may very well end up being a blue state again. I think the reasons you state for a blue Oregon make good sense. However,
in 2000 Bush only lost to Gore/Nader combined by 5.5%. Assuming there isn't a major shift in the electorate in Oregon that is independent of general national
trends, Bush won't need much of a bump to take it. If you look at the 2000 election result for Washington and compare them to national trends, Bush will
need 52.75% of the national vote to overtake the Democrat in Washington. I think Bush will get that and more. - The Blogging Caesar, 01/25/04 Thanks for the compliments. I appreciate them a bunch!
As for Pennsylvania, one phrase in your note actually supports my hope that Bush will win there: "last time with good
economic conditions." This is significant because Bush was NOT in the incumbent party. The economic conditions in which
Election 2000 occurred make it even more remarkable that Bush was able to win nationally. This time around, economic
conditions are improving - PA will follow. Once November rolls around, the voters should realize that the economy has indeed
turned around and, even though it may not be where we'd like it to be by then, Bush's policies will get a lot of credit for getting
it going in the right direction. This, along with an improving situation in Iraq, should give him the surge he needs to win
Pennsylvania....we'll see! You run a fine blog, well worth anybody's time. I've added you to my blogroll,
and will post a welcoming item today. Thank you very much for the encouragement and support! I deeply appreciate it!
- The Blogging Caesar, 01/23/04 I'm predicting that by the spring, GWB will be leading HoHo Dean in
California by 7 points or more. Arnold's election brought an
opportunity for the center to get involved in politics again. The
recent budget deal was brokered by a bi-partisan group of moderate
legislators who may be able to play the part in our state that Zell Miller
and John Breaux have played nationally. Though the deal wasn't
perfect (what is?) it's progress. I believe if we give the middle a
sincere invitation, we can bring back the Reagan Democrats and Perotistas
into our electoral majority, even in Culyfornia.
I found you via the Wictory Wednesday rolls. Come by and visit:
http://www.theirishlass.blogspot.com/ In my estimation, the effect of Arnold's victory in
California is the most intriguing unknown of the 2004 election cycle.
Could he help propel this heavily democratic state into the red,
politically speaking that is, or is his victory simply fodder for the
hopes of fools?
Your reasoning seems sound and agrees with my hunch.
I think the Reagan Democrats will be welcomed back into the fold, only now
they are more likely to vote not only for Bush but for Republicans down
the ticket as well.
I'm excited about promoting Wictory
Wednesdays. The more people we can get actively involved in Bush's
re-election, the bigger the margin will be. And, we can help avoid
complacency that would result in lost opportunity down the ticket. -
The Blogging Caesar
Jayson J. - "Excellent analysis!
A few comments:
1. My current predication on the popular vote is almost identical
to yours, with Dean as the nominee.
2. Regarding California, I would respectfully argue that you have
overstated the impact of the national economy's improvements. California's
unemployment rate is substantially higher than the national average and
... job growth here will lag the nation's by a wide margin. I predict that
the national unemployment rate will be roughly 5.5 percent come Election
Day, but, here, we might not see that type of rate until 2006, believe it
or not.
I do think, however, you're on the money regarding Arnold's potential
impact.
Also, one factor that you might not be considering enough is the issue
of taxes.
I've been living in the Golden State since 1987 and in Sacramento since
2000. Believe me when I tell you that what ultimately sunk Davis in the
recall election was the increase in the car tax that he imposed to try to
bail himself out of the budget fiasco. ... Now, flash ahead to
... next year. ... Dean has flat-out declared that he wants to
eliminate ALL of Bush's tax cuts. That alone puts Bush over the
hump, regardless of California's overall fiscal situation.
3. I think Bush will take New York. Four reasons:
A) Dean's preposterous assertions that it "doesn't matter" whether Bin
Laden were tried in the U.S. or by the French/Dutch and that he wouldn't
want to "prejudge" him will be plastered into the eyes and heads of
voters. That alone could cost him 5 percent of the total vote.
B) Rudy G.'s large and commanding presence in New York City proper will
severely reduce what otherwise would be a wipe out in favor of Dean.
C) Pataki's presence and fund raising ability will help immeasurably
with GOTV efforts in the upstate regions.
D) Hillary either will be M.I.A. or her stumping will be in preparation
for her senate run in 2006 and then her presidential run in 2008. She
simply will not get behind Dean. ... A lot of Hillary's more shrewd
supporters ... either will not vote at the top of the ticket or will
grudgingly vote for Bush because that clears the field (in their minds)
for Hillary's 2008 run.
4. Regarding Oregon, I believe Bush wins solely on the strength of the
recently-passed Healthy Forests Initiative. First [this] will create
thousands of jobs in Oregon by next Summer. Second, the environmentalists
in Oregon are REAL environmentalists; nothing like these lunatic-fringe
nut jobs in San Francisco. They understand up in Oregon that an overgrown
forest does not help the environment, but instead hurts it. They will
appreciate that the HFI got pushed through on Bush's watch and that he did
not apologize for it.
In any event, again, great analysis.
It looks like next year will be a great one (for those of us in the
right!)." I appreciate very much your lengthly response
- I like long responses! I hope you won't mind me editing it a
bit for this space.
On California: You may be right
about the employment out there, but I'd say that an
improving national economy is a prerequisite to an improving state
economy in CA, so the economic boom nationwide will be a boon to Bush in
California.
On New York: I sincerely hope - and sincerely
doubt - you're right about NY. Bush lost NY by an eye-popping 28.6%
if you add Nader's vote to Gore's. That's just too much ground to
make up. If Bush wins NY, we'll be witnessing a landslide of the
likes we've not seen in my 37 years.
On Oregon: Good insight. As long
as Oregon turns red, it sounds good to me! - The Blogging Caesar
Billy W. - "Good site. Like so
many others, got here via Polipundit. I really like your
methodology. Even though I am not a numbers cruncher myself, I like your
efforts and it tracks pretty close with what I am saying. I do disagree
with Illinois. I am just not sure that this is attainable in 04. I am
extremely pessimistic about the Senate seat here. If we were to hang onto
this seat, I would be very shocked. If the GOP wins this seat it will be a
HUGE night for the good guys. I am talking about close to a fillibuster
proof senate. Alas, I don't think it is to be."
Actually, Billy, I am hoping for a HUGE night for
the good guys. If God grants my prayer, we will have
filibuster-proof senate. Check out my commentary
on the subject. Illinois is going to be a tough one, I agree, but if
Bush can win the national vote by the 13.3% margin I'm predicting, he
can carry it, and we can hold that senate seat. - The Blogging Caesar
Joseph G. - "First, let me complement you on your web site. You are
obviously a political junkie like myself. I have added your site to
the list of my favorites. I would, however, be a little less
optomistic about Michigan. In 2000, there was never a poll I saw
that ever showed Bush over 46 percent.
... Since then I have seen 2 polls.
One had Bush at 43 and the other at 46. Furthermore, the economic
climate in Michigan stinks! 200,000 jobs lost in the past 3 years
and almost no new ones. I know that jobs are a lagging
indicator, but in Michigan they are a really long long lagging
indicator. ... Unless a miracle occurs with jobs, Bush
will have trouble here. ... I will look forward to visiting your web
site over the upcoming election year. It gets no better for
people like us. God Bless You. Dave E. - "Nice website (I linked through PoliPundit). I had similar
thoughts about the electoral college tally at this point
(12/12/03) but was afraid that I was overly optimistic.
If Dean is a kooky as I think he is, we may see another 49 state
triumph! We can only hope. Todd E. - "Read the site. Very cool!
Paul A. - "I just found your
website. This is great! Keep up the good work. John S. - "I agree with much of
your state by state analysis. I really do think Bush has a shot at
California for the reasons you said and because Californians, I think, are
starting to realize that their liberalism got them in the mess they're in.
Ok, not all Californians realize this, but I think many do. Republicans
got over 60% of the vote in the recall election. "Also, Bush will run strong with Latino voters as
he did in TX during his re-election for governor. Keep up the good work.
I'll check back often" I know as a conservative, it's reassuring to see
that the states with the biggest financial problems - California
being the obvious case - are deeply rooted in liberalism. Not
that I'd say "I told you so", but it's nice to see real life
situations where our principles are validated. - The Blogging Caesar
Gary M. - "You are my new favorite
site (tied with polipundit). I love crunching
these same numbers. I made my projection on polipundit about 3 weeks ago
and it looks like you and I are tracking pretty closely. Republicans pick up 4 Senate seats and 11 House
seats.
Our age, family situation and outlook on life are
all similar. I look forward to checking in daily." Wow! Thanks, Gary. Polipundit is my
favorite site, too. - The Blogging Caesar |
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