In June, Rasmussen had Toomey ahead of Sestak by 6 points, while PPP had the race tied.

Rasmussen and PPP also showed identical results in the Keystone State’s race for governor. Former Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) led Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by 11 points in a recent Rasmussen survey and by 13 points according to PPP.

FL-3:  Rep Corrine Brown has face many ethics questions, and could have a tough primary against Scott Fortune.  Despite the D+18 rating and the fact that this is a majority Black district, it is a conservative district because of the high number of Military living in the area.  If Brown survives her primary, she could be vulnerable.  However, only black conservative Chris Nwasike has the opportunity to defeat her, and he has a few primary challengers to get through first.

FL-5:  While this is an R+9 district, retiring Republican Ginny Brown-Waite took it from Democrats by a narrow margin in 2002.  While The Democrats haven't fielded strong candidates in a few cycles, this year may be different.  Jim Piccillo, who switched from R to D to run for this seat, is capable of making this race competitive in November.  If Republican Sherrif Rick Nugent wins the primary, this seat should stay with the GOP, however, if Tea Party candidate Jason Sager wins, he'll be more vulnerable to Picollo.

FL-8:  Alan Grayson is one of the most likely Democrats to be unseated in November since he won FL-8 almost solely on Obama's coattails.  As a result, Republicans rushed to enter this race.  The 2 GOP frontrunners are State Senator Kurt Kelly and conservative Dan Webster.  Kelly is getting the moderate establishment Charlie Crist vote, while Webster has received the endorsement of Jeb Bush.  He's getting a lot of support from Rubio conservatives.  Some argue that the moderate Kelly is the better general election candidate, but it's actually Webster who will be more likely to defeat Grayson.  He should be able to cut into the moderate vote and do much better with conservative voters.

FL-24:  This R+4 district is one of the most interesting races in the country because of the vulnerability of freshmen Democratic Rep Suzanne Kosmas.  She's very vulnerable in tomorrow's primary to Paul Partyka, who has lead in the 2 most recent polls.  On the GOP side, it's been considered a 3-way race between Craig Miller, Karen Diebel and Sandy Adams.  Diebel looked like the leader, but a 911 call surfaced where she claimed a snake was thrown in her pool by "political operatives."  Craig Miller has since attacked her "mental fitness" to serve, even sending out a paid mailer where two of her co-workers discuss her "delusional" nature.  Miller & Diebel have both been damaged by these attacks, and conservative Sandy Adams now looks like the favorite.  If Adams wins the primary, she'll be the favorite over either Partyka or Kosmas.  If Miller wins, he'd likely defeat Kosmas, but Partyka could be a tough race for him.  Diebel will have a hard time defeating either of the Democrats after the damage caused.

FL-25:  Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is leaving this seat and moving to the safer one that his brother, Lincoln, is retiring from.  Republicans have entered State Rep David Rivera, who is a strong candidate in this heavily Cuban district, and should defeat "Tea Party Republican" Paul Crespo.  However, the Tea Party has also managed to get Roly Arrojo on the ballot as 3rd Party candidate, which will take away some conservative Republican support in November.  Democrats have two candidates running in the primary, and who wins that race could likely determine whether Rivera keeps this seat for Republicans.  If Director of the Cuban American National Foundation Joe Garcia, who almost defeated Diaz-Balart in this district, wins the primary, then Rivera will have a very tough race, but if Luis Meurice is victorious, Rivera will have an easier time.

AZ-3:  This is the R+9 open seat of retiring Republican Congressman John Shadegg.  A dozen candidates or so entered this race because the primary winner is viewed as the heir-apparent to Shadegg in this heavily Republican district.  Of the many contenders, four have been fighting it out at the top.  But in a race where a relatively low percentage of the vote will take the prize, several others have the opportunity to sneak in and take the nomination, especially considering how the top-tier candidates have been trashing each other. 

The race started out with former VP Dan Quayle's son Ben Quayle, State Senator Jim Waring and Mayor Vernon Parker standing above the field in-terms of visibility and name recognition.  But Steve Moak has used his money to run a strong paid-media campaign that has propelled him to the top as well.  Parker, who is endorsed by Arpaio, has also received DC-based GOP support because - like Tim Scott, Allen West and Ryan Frazier - he is a high profile black conservative with a genuine opportunity for victory in November.  Waring is the clear favorite of the state GOP party and Senator McCain.  Ben Quayle has never had any major support from any Arizona politicians.  He has sold himself as the Tea Party candidate.  A strong front-runner at one point, Qualye has fallen sharply after several major debacles (i.e. borrowing kids for paid media photos, admitting to writing posts for a female-bashing website).

Parker or Waring would certainly keep this seat in GOP column in November.  Moak and state legislators Pam Gorman or Sam Clump would also likely win due to the registration advantage.  On the other hand, should Quayle win this race, his baggage will make it hard for him to keep conservative Democrat and father-of-five, John Hulburd from taking this one for the Democrats.

AZ-5:  While this seat is rated R+5, it is very much a swing seat that will likely go back and forth between parties every few cycles.  Democrat Harry Mitchell is not very popular these days, but none of his GOP rivals have really managed to pull the majority of Republicans together.  David Schweikert has ran for office twice before and lost, and Susan Bitters Smith was the 2008 nominee that Mitchell easily defeated.  She's also known for using a 2008 Arpaio endorsement to make it appear as if he supports her again, which he does not.  If either of these candidates wins the primary, it's not likely they can unseat Mitchell.

Tea Party favorite Mark Spinks exited the race after his 2005 arrest for indecent exposure was revealed.  The top two candidates are Dr. Chris Salvino and Jim Ward.  Salvino initially used Obamacare to gain support, but has since switched to border issues to be more competitive against Ward.  For his part, Ward has the support of most conservatives and is becoming the favorite of the GOP establishment as well.  Though neither is a sure shot to defeat Mitchell, Ward is certainly the strongest candidate with the best chance to succeed in November.

AZ-8:  Brian Miller, president of the Freshman 50 PAC, exited this race after facing questions about spending PAC funds on his own race.  As a result, the race is down to conservative State Senator Jonathan Paton and Tea Party/Arpaio candidate and veteran Jesse Kelly.  Kelly was an early favorite, and attempted to define Paton as the "establishment" Republican.  However, Paton's record as a legislator proved him to be a strong conservative, who continually takes on the governor and the leadership of both parties.  The race between Kelly and Paton is very close, and either could win the primary.  However, while Paton almost certainly will defeat embattled Democrat incumbent Gabrielle Giffords in November, Kelly may have a tougher time.  He'll have to prove he's about more than just border security.

On to this week's projection changes.  In the House, we had two days of numerous rating changes.  This resulted from adjusting Pollster.com's generic composite average.  I learned from having 8 of 10 GOP-favored rating changes move back to the Democrats the next day.  Instead of updating that figure each day, I will only be updating it once a week - on Saturday.

The net movement this week in the House brought the GOP one seat closer to the projected majority.  With the tally at 221-214, Republicans are four seats away.  In the statehouse races, a couple of rating changes occurred, but nothing to move any races from one color to another.  The Senate, which had been stable for a couple weeks, did see a late party-switcher.  Just today, a poll released by We Ask America put Republican Mark Steven Kirk up slightly in his race against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.  The Senate tally stands at 50-47-3 in favor of the DEMs.

Finally, a word about polls and ties.  In Washington, the race between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi is sure to be a close contest.  The latest poll in the race comes from SurveyUSA and gives Rossi a large 7-point lead.  I am suspicious of those numbers, yet I can't pick and choose which polls I use and maintain objectivity in my projections.

The poll counters two other recent polls' findings and moves the projected margin to exactly 0.0% - a tie.  What I have decided to do to address this type of situation is give the benefit of the doubt to the candidate who is leading in more polls.  In this case, I've adjusted the projection by 0.2% in Murray's favor since she leads in two of three polls in the formula's calculations.  This plan also helps combat SurveyUSA's suspiciously GOP-favored numbers.

Looking forward to a busy and exciting fall!

Talk to you again next week.