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New York  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking

New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 20.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

New York ranks 32nd among the 50 states.
 
Presidential Race

Race for the White House

GOP Candidates
  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois  
  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10)

    Party nominee -

    •  


    Senate Race
    No race in 2008
     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2008
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 13
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Vito Fossella is retiring at the end of his 6th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Straniere - Former New York State Assemblyman
  • Jamshad Wyne - Physician

    DEM Candidates

  • Stephen Harrison - 2006 Congressional Nominee
  • Michael McMahon - New York City Councilman

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

    •  

    District 20
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand seeks a second term in 2008.  She faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Sandy Treadwell - Former New York Secretary of State
  • John Wallace - Former New York State Trooper
  • Michael Rocque - Army Special Forces

    DEM Candidates

  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

    •  

    District 25
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Walsh is retiring at the end of his 10th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bob Oaks - New York State Assemblyman
  • Ronald Jennings - Former Syracuse Parks Commissioner
  • David Gay - Punk Rocker

    DEM Candidates

  • Dan Maffei - 2006 Congressional Nominee

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

    •  

    District 26
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Thomas Reynolds is retiring at the end of his 5th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bill Reilich - New York State Assemblyman
  • Jordan Levy
  • Rick Lewis
  • Micheal Powers - Attorney

    DEM Candidates

  • Jack Davis, Jr. - 2004/2006 Congressional Nominee
  • Alice Kryzan - Attorney
  • Jonathan Powers - Iraqi Veteran

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

    •  

    District 29
    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Randy Kuhl, Jr. is up for a third term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Kuhl, Jr. - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Eric Massa - 2006 Congressional Nominee

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

    •  
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Tim Bishop (D)-inc vs. Lee Zeldin (R)
  • District 2:  Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. Frank Stalzer (R)
  • District 3:  Peter King (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 10:  Edolphus Towns? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 11:  Yvette Clarke (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 15:  Charles Rangel (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 16:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 17:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 18:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 19:  John Hall (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 21:  OPEN: ??? (D) vs. Jim Buhrmaster? (R)
  • District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 23:  John McHugh (R)-inc vs. Mike Oot (D)
  • District 24:  Michael Arcuri (D)-inc vs. Richard Hanna (R)
  • District 27:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc vs. Daniel Humiston (R)
  • District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
    •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline

  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • July 10, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 9, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown

    		•
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 6 GOP, 23 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor vacant
      State Senate - GOP control 32 GOP, 30 DEM
      State House - DEM control 42 GOP, 105 DEM, 2 other, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  David Paterson (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  vacant - next election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Hillary Clinton (D) - 2nd term (running for President)
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 13th term
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 6th term
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 9th term
  • House District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D) - 5th term
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 13th term (might retire)
  • House District 11:  Yvette Clark (D) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 8th term
  • House District 13:  Vito Fossella (R) - 6th term
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 8th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 19th term (might retire)
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 10th term
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 10th term
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 19:  John Hall (D) - 1st term
  • House District 20:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 1st term
  • House District 21:  Michael McNulty (D) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 8th term
  • House District 23:  John McHugh (R) - 8th term
  • House District 24:  Michael Arcuri (D) - 1st term
  • House District 25:  James Walsh (R) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 26:  Thomas Reynolds (R) - 5th term (retiring)
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 11th term (might retire)
  • House District 29:  Randy Kuhl (R) - 2nd term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot

    		•
     
      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result
    President Solid DEM -- Solid DEM --
    Senate
    Class 1 Strong DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --
    Governor -- Strong GOP -- Solid DEM
    House 11 GOP - 20 DEM 10 GOP - 19 DEM 9 GOP - 20 DEM 6 GOP - 23 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Weak DEM Strong DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Strong DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-4 Solid DEM Strong DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-5 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-6 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-7 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-8 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-9 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-10 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-11 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-12 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-13 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-14 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-15 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-16 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-17 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-18 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-19 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak DEM
    CD-20 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod DEM
    CD-21 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-22 Solid GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-23 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-24 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod DEM
    CD-25 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP
    CD-26 Solid DEM Solid GOP Strong GOP Weak GOP
    CD-27 Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak DEM Solid DEM
    CD-28 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-29 Solid DEM Solid GOP Strong GOP Weak GOP
    CD-30 Solid GOP NA NA NA
    CD-31 Solid GOP NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •  

    New York Race Tracking
    President
    John McCain
    vs
    Barack Obama
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    No race
    Governor
    No race
    House District 13 (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Gain
     
    House District 20
    Kristen Gillibrand - inc
    vs
    Sandy Treadwell
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    House District 25 (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    Dan Maffei
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Gain
     
    House District 26 (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    Jack Davis
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Hold
     
    House District 29
    Randy Kuhl - inc
    vs
    Eric Massa
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Hold
     
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    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    Election Projection Resources
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