2000 Adjustment:  Bush +2.0% EV's:  Bush 296, Kerry 242 Pct:     Bush 49.9%, Kerry 48.3% Job Approval:  50.2%  up 3.6% from 46.6% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 48.5% - Kerry: 45.6%   margin down 0.4 to +2.9% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 41.0% - Negative: 54.0%    margin down 4.3 to -13.0% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +1.6% (up from 0.4%) Bush gains Iowa Bush gains New Mexico Bush gains Wisconsin Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush  Louisiana  Tennessee Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush  Iowa  New Mexico  Wisconsin Close Kerry Really Close Kerry  Michigan Solid Kerry Close Kerry  California  Hawaii Close Bush Really Close Bush  West Virginia Really Close Kerry Close Kerry  Maine (District 2)

October 17, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.4% EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264 Pct:     Bush 49.3%, Kerry 48.9% Job Approval:  46.6%  down 3.0% from 49.6% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 48.8% - Kerry: 45.5%   margin up 1.1 to +3.3% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 43.0% - Negative: 51.7%    margin up 5.0 to -8.7% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +0.4% (down from 0.8%) Changes in the State of the States Close Kerry Really Close Kerry  Minnesota Close Bush Really Close Bush  Arkansas Really Close Kerry Close Kerry  Maine (at large)

October 10, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.6% EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264 Pct:     Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.7% Job Approval:  49.6%  down 1.0% from 50.6% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 48.3% - Kerry: 46.1%   margin down 1.4 to +2.2% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.3% - Negative: 54.0%   margin down 0.7 to -13.7% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +0.8% (down from 2.2%) Bush loses Wisconsin Bush loses Iowa Bush loses New Hampshire Changes in the State of the States Solid Bush Close Bush  North Carolina  Tennessee Close Bush Really Close Bush  Missouri Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry  New Hampshire  Iowa  Wisconsin Really Close Kerry Close Kerry  Maine (district 1)  Minnesota  Michigan  Washington Close Kerry Solid Kerry  Illinois  Maryland  Vermont

October 3, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +2.3% EV's:  Bush 295, Kerry 243 Pct:     Bush 50.2%, Kerry 48.0% Job Approval:  50.6%  down 1.0% from 51.6% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 49.4% - Kerry: 45.8%   margin down 1.7 to +3.6% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 41.3% - Negative: 54.3%    margin down 1.3 to -13.0% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +2.2% (down from -4.0%) Changes in the State of the States Solid Bush Close Bush  Louisiana Close Bush Really Close Bush  Nevada  Wisconsin Close Kerry Solid Kerry  California  Delaware

September 26, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +3.2% EV's:  Bush 295, Kerry 243 Pct:     Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1% Job Approval:  Approve: 51.6%   up 0.8% from 50.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 48.9% - Kerry: 43.6%   margin down 0.5 to +5.3% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 41.0% - Negative: 52.7%   margin down 0.7 to -11.7% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +4.0% (unchanged) Bush loses New Mexico Bush loses Pennsylvania Bush loses Oregon Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush  Wisconsin Solid Kerry Close Kerry  Maryland  Delaware Solid Bush Close Bush  Arizona Close Bush Really Close Bush  Ohio Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry  New Mexico  Pennsylvania  Oregon

September 19, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +3.2% EV's:  Bush 328, Kerry 210 Pct:     Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1% Job Approval:  Approve: 50.8%   down 0.6% from 51.4% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 49.4% - Kerry: 43.6%   margin up 0.6 to +5.8% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.7% - Negative: 51.7%   margin down 3 to -11.0% New Polls:  CBS - NYT, Gallup, Annenberg, New Democrat, Zogby, Democracy Corps, Pew Research National Margin:  +4.0% (down from +4.1%) Bush gains Wisconsin! Bush gains Pennsylvania! Bush gains Oregon! Bush gains New Mexico! Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush  Ohio  Nevada  New Hampshire Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush  Wisconsin  Pennsylvania  Oregon  New Mexico Close Kerry Really Close Kerry  Maine (district 1) Close Kerry Solid Kerry  Delaware

September 12, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +3.3% EV's:  Bush 285, Kerry 253 Pct:     Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.0% Job Approval:  Approve: 51.4%   up 0.4% from 51.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 49.4% - Kerry: 44.2%   margin up 0.4 to 5.2% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 43.0% - Negative: 51.0%   margin unchanged at -8.0% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +4.1% (up from +3.6%) Bush gains Iowa! Bush loses Wisconsin Changes due to State Polls: Wisconsin to Kerry New Mexico to Kerry Oregon to Kerry Maine (district 2) to Kerry Minnesota to Kerry Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush  Arizona  Tennessee Really Close Bush Close Bush  Missouri Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush  Iowa Solid Kerry Close Kerry  Delaware  Illinois Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry  Wisconsin

September 5, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +3.0% EV's:  Bush 288, Kerry 250 Pct:     Bush 50.9%, Kerry 47.3% Job Approval:  Approve: 51.0%   up 1.0% from 50.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 49.5% - Kerry: 44.7%   margin up 3.5 to 4.8% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 42.3% - Negative: 50.3%   margin up 6.0 to -8.0% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  +3.6% (up from +0.3%) Bush gains New Hampshire! Changes due to State Polls: Iowa to Kerry New Mexico to Kerry Oregon to Kerry Maine (district 2) to Kerry Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush  Louisiana  North Carolina Really Close Bush Close Bush  Tennessee  Colorado  Arkansas  Arizona Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush  New Hampshire Close Kerry Really Close Kerry  Maine (at large)  Washington Solid Kerry Close Kerry  Vermont

August 29, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.4% EV's:  Bush 284, Kerry 254 Pct:     Bush 49.2%, Kerry 48.9% Job Approval:  Approve: 50.0%   up 2.0% from 48.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.4% - Kerry: 45.1%   margin up 1.2 to 2.5% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 38.3% - Negative: 52.3%   margin up 0.3 to -14.0% New Polls:  Gallup, TIPP - IBD, Fox News, NBC - WSJ, LA Times, Time National Margin:  +0.3% (up from -3.3%) Bush gains Wisoncsin! Bush gains Florida! Bush gains Ohio! Changes due to State Polls: Wisconsin to Bush New Hampshire to Kerry Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush:  West Virginia  Louisiana  Virginia Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:  Ohio  Florida  Wisconsin Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  Maine (District 2)  Oregon  Minnesota  Pennsylvania  Michigan Solid Kerry Close Kerry:  Maine (District 1)  California

August 22, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.4% EV's:  Bush 227, Kerry 311 Pct:     Bush 47.4%, Kerry 50.7% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.0%   up 0.6% from 47.4% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 45.3% - Kerry: 47.8%   margin up 1.2 to 2.5% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.7% - Negative: 55.0%   unchanged New Polls:  CBS News, Gallup (right track only), Harris National Margin:  -3.3% (up from -4.4%) Bush gains Nevada! Bush gains Missouri! Changes due to State Polls:  NONE Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush:  Georgia Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:  Nevada  Missouri Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  New Mexico Close Bush Really Close Bush:  Louisiana

August 16, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -1.0% EV's:  Bush 211, Kerry 327 Pct:     Bush 46.9%, Kerry 51.3% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.4%   down 0.4% from 47.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.9% - Kerry: 48.6%   margin down 0.5 to -3.7% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 39.7% - Negative: 54.0%   unchanged New Polls:  IBD - TIPP, Pew, Gallup, Zogby National Margin:  -4.4% (down from -3.1%) Bush gains West Virginia! Bush loses Ohio Bush loses Florida Bush loses Nevada Changes due to State Polls:  NONE Changes in the State of the States Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:  West Virginia Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  New Hampshire Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry:  Missouri  Nevada  Ohio Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  New Mexico  Oregon Close Kerry Solid Kerry:  Maine (district 1)

August 10, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.4% EV's:  Bush 242, Kerry 296 Pct:     Bush 47.5%, Kerry 50.6% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.8%   down 0.4% from 48.2% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.2% - Kerry: 49.4%   margin down 0.1 to -3.2% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 39.7% - Negative: 54%   margin up 3.0 to -14.3% New Polls: All polls used are new National Margin:  -3.1% (up from -3.8%) Bush gains Ohio! Bush gains Florida! Bush gains Nevada! Bush loses West Virginia Changes due to State Polls:   Ohio to Bush West Virginia to Kerry Changes in the State of the States Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:  Ohio  Nevada  Missouri Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  New Mexico  Oregon Solid Kerry Close Kerry:  Maine (at large)  Maine (district 1) Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry:  West Virginia Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  New Hampshire

August 1, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.6% EV's:  Bush 211, Kerry 327 Pct:     Bush 47.2%, Kerry 51.0% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.2%   down 0.8% from 49.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 43.8% - Kerry: 46.9%   margin down 1.4 to -3.1% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 36.3% - Negative: 53.7%   margin down 3.6 to -17.3% New Polls: Newsweek, Annenberg, Zogby National Margin:  -3.8% (down from -2.2%) Bush loses Ohio Bush loses Florida Bush loses Nevada Changes due to State Polls:  NONE Changes in the State of the States Solid Bush Close Bush:  Georgia Close Bush Really Close Bush:  Colorado  Virginia Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry:  Ohio  Florida  Nevada Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  New Mexico  Minnesota  Maine (District 2) Close Kerry Solid Kerry:  Maine (at large)  Maine (district 1)

July 28, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.1% EV's:  Bush 263, Kerry 275 Pct:     Bush 48.0%, Kerry 50.2% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.0%   up 1.8% from 47.2% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.7% - Kerry: 46.4%   margin up 2.5 to -1.7% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 38.3% - Negative: 52.0%   margin down 0.4 to -13.7% New Polls:  All polls used are new National Margin:  -2.2% (up from -4.8%) Bush gains Ohio! Bush gains Florida! Bush gains Nevada! Changes due to State Polls:   Ohio to Bush Missouri to Kerry Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush:  Georgia Really Close Bush Close Bush:  Louisiana,  Colorado,  Virginia Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:  Ohio,  Florida,  Nevada Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  Maine (District 2),  New Mexico,  Minnesota,  New Hampshire Solid Kerry Close Kerry:  Maine (district 1) Close Bush Really Close Bush:  Arizona

July 19, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.7% EV's:  Bush 211, Kerry 327 Pct:     Bush 46.7%, Kerry 51.5% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.2%   down 1.0% from 48.2% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.5% - Kerry: 48.7%   margin down 0.3 to -4.2% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.0% - Negative: 53.3%   margin down 5.0 to -13.3% New Polls:  CBS - New York Times, Democracy Corps, Washington Post - ABC, Gallup, IBD - CSM National Margin:  -4.8% (down from -3.7%) Bush loses Ohio Bush loses Missouri Bush loses Nevada Changes due to State Polls:   NONE Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush:  Arizona Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry:  Ohio,  Missouri,  Nevada Close Bush Really Close Bush:  Tennessee,  Virginia,  Louisiana Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  New Hampshire,  New Mexico,  Maine (District 2),  Oregon Close Kerry Solid Kerry:  Maine (district 1)

July 11, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.7% EV's:  Bush 247, Kerry 291 Pct:     Bush 47.2%, Kerry 50.9% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.2%   up 1.2% from 47.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.6% - Kerry: 48.5%   margin down 5.7 to -3.9% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 42.0% - Negative: 50.3%   margin up 7.6 to -8.3% New Polls:  NBC News, CBS News, Newsweek, Associated Press - Ipsos, Time, Zogby National Margin:  -3.7% (down from -1.0%) Changes due to State Polls:   Ohio to Bush Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush:  Virginia, Louisiana Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:  Maine (district 2), Oregon Solid Kerry Close Kerry:  Maine (district 1) Solid Bush Close Bush:  Tennessee Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  Pennsylvania

July 4, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.7% EV's:  Bush 247, Kerry 291 Pct:     Bush 48.6%, Kerry 49.6% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.0%   down 1.8% from 48.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.2% - Kerry: 44.4%   margin up 1.3 to +1.8% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.0% - Negative: 53.3%   margin down 2.7 to -16.0% New Polls:  NBC - Wall Street Journal, CBS - New York Times, Battleground National Margin:  -1.0% (down from -0.8%) Bush loses Florida Changes due to State Polls:   Ohio to Bush Changes in the State of the States Really Close Bush Close Bush:  Arizona Solid Bush Close Bush:  Georgia Close Bush Really Close Bush:  Colorado, Louisiana, Virginia Really Close Bush Really Close Kerry:  Florida Really Close Kerry Close Kerry:  Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota

June 27, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.8% EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264 Pct:     Bush 48.7%, Kerry 49.5% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.8%   unchanged Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.2% - Kerry: 45.7%   margin up 1.5 to +0.5% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 40.0% - Negative: 53.3%   margin up 6.7 to -13.3% New Polls:  Investor's Business Daily - Christian Science Monitor, Gallup, Fox News, Annenberg, ABC - Washington Post National Margin:  -0.8% (up from -2.2%) Bush gains Nevada! Changes due to State Polls:   Florida to Bush Changes in the State of the States Close Bush Solid Bush:   Tennessee Really Close Bush Close Bush:   Colorado, Virginia Really Close Kerry Really Close Bush:   Nevada Close Kerry Really Close Kerry:   Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota Solid Kerry Close Kerry:   Maine (at large) Close Bush Really Close Bush:   Arkansas

June 18, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.1% EV's:  Bush 269, Kerry 269 Pct:     Bush 48.0%, Kerry 50.2% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.8%   up 1.6 from 47.2 Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.2% - Kerry: 45.2%   margin up 1.5 to -1.0% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 37.7% - Negative: 57.7%   margin down 4.4 to -20.0% New Polls:  Investor's Business Daily - Christian Science Monitor, Pew Research, Ipsos - Associated Press, Gallup (Right track numbers) National Margin:  -2.2% (up from -5.1%) Bush gains Florida! Bush gains Ohio! Changes due to State Polls:   Ohio to Bush Florida to Bush Nevada to Kerry

June 12, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -1.9% EV's:  Bush 222, Kerry 316 Pct:     Bush 46.5%, Kerry 51.6% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.2%   up 1.6 from 45.6 Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 43.4% - Kerry: 45.9%   margin down 0.7 to -2.5% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 39.7% - Negative: 55.3%   margin up 8.1 to -15.6% New Polls:  All polls are new National Margin:  -5.1% (up from -7.6%) Bush gains Arizona! Bush gains Missouri! Changes due to State Polls:   Missouri to Bush

May 26, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -2.57% EV's:  Bush 201, Kerry 337 Pct:     Bush 45.30%, Kerry 52.87% Job Approval:  Approve: 45.6%   down 0.2 from 45.8 Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 43.8% - Kerry: 45.6%   margin down 0.7 to -1.8% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 36.0% - Negative: 59.7%   margin up 0.7 to -23.7% New Polls:  All polls are new National Margin:  -7.57% (down from -7.21%) Bush loses Arizona Changes due to State Polls:   Arkansas to Bush West Virginia to Bush

May 15, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -2.39% EV's:  Bush 211, Kerry 327 Pct:     Bush 45.48%, Kerry 52.69% Job Approval:  Approve: 45.8%   down 1.4 from 47.2 Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 45.4% - Kerry: 46.5%   margin down 2.8 to -1.1% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 36.0% - Negative: 60.3%   margin up 8.7 to -24.3% New Polls:  Gallup, CNN / Time, Pew Research, Investor's Business Daily, ARG, CBS / New York Times National Margin:  -7.21% (down from -3.91%) Bush loses Missouri Bush loses Nevada Changes due to State Polls:   Arizona to Bush West Virginia to Bush

May 8, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.74% EV's:  Bush 227, Kerry 311 Pct:     Bush 47.13%, Kerry 51.04% Job Approval:  Approve: 47.2%   down 2.2 from 49.4 Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 45.7% - Kerry: 44.0%   margin down 0.9 to +1.7% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 37.7% - Negative: 55.7%   margin up 2.4 to -18.0% New Polls:  Gallup, Quinnipiac, Sacred Heart, NBC / Wall Street Journal, CBS / New York Times National Margin:  -3.91% (down from -1.15%) Bush loses Florida Bush loses Ohio Changes due to State Polls:  NONE

April 30, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.69% EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264 Pct:     Bush 48.56%, Kerry 49.61% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.4%   no change Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.0% - Kerry: 43.4%   margin up 3.2 to +2.6% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 38.7% - Negative: 54.3%   margin up 4.6 to -15.6% New Polls:  All polls are new National Margin:  -1.15% (up from -2.86%) Bush gains Florida! Changes due to State Polls: Florida to Bush New Hampshire to Kerry

April 13, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.20% EV's:  Bush 247, Kerry 291 Pct:     Bush 48.07%, Kerry 50.93% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.4%   Down 0.4 from 49.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.0% - Kerry: 44.6%   Margin up 0.8 to -0.6% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 36.7% - Negative: 57.0%   Margin down 10.3 to -20.3% New Polls:  All polls are new except LA Times. National Margin:  -2.86% (down from -1.26%) Bush loses Florida

April 5, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.99% EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264 Pct:     Bush 48.86%, Kerry 50.14% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.8%   Down 0.6 from 50.4% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.2% - Kerry: 47.6%   Margin down 3.0 to -1.4% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 42.0% - Negative: 52.0%   Margin down 1.0 to -10.0% New Polls:  LA Times, Zogby, Gallup, CBS News, Pew Research National Margin:  -1.26% (down from +0.54%) Bush loses New Mexico Bush loses New Hampshire Bush loses Iowa

March 27, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.90% EV's:  Bush 290, Dem 248 Pct:     Bush 49.77%, Dem 49.23% Job Approval:  Approve: 50.4%   Up 1.4 from 49.0% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 46.6% - Kerry: 45.0%   Margin up 5.4 to +1.6% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 42.7% - Negative: 51.7%   Margin up 7.4 to -9.0% New Polls:  All polls used are new. National Margin:  +0.54% (up from -3.84%) Bush gains Florida! Bush gains New Mexico! Bush gains New Hampshire! Bush gains Iowa!

March 14, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush -0.29% EV's:  Bush 247, Dem 291 Pct:     Bush 47.58%, Dem 51.42% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.0%   Up 0.2 from 48.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 44.8% - Kerry: 48.6%   Margin down 3.4 to -3.8% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 38.3% - Negative: 54.7%   Margin up 0.2 to -16.4% New Polls:  NBC News, Gallup, ABC News, American Research Group, Investor's Business Daily National Margin:  -3.84% (down from -2.86%)

March 7, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.20% EV's:  Bush 247, Dem 291 Pct:     Bush 48.07%, Dem 50.93% Job Approval:  Approve: 48.8% Bush vs. Kerry:  Bush: 45.4% - Kerry: 45.8%   Margin up 3.0 to -0.4% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 39.7% - Negative: 56.3%   Margin down 8.1 to -16.6% New Polls:  Fox News, Associated Press, National Public Radio, Pew Research National Margin:  -2.86% (down from -1.76%)

February 29, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.74% EV's:  Bush 247, Dem 291 Pct:     Bush 48.61%, Dem 50.39% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.8% Bush vs. Dem:  Bush: 44.8% - Dem: 48.2%   Margin up 2.0 to -3.4% Right Track / Wrong Direction:  Positive: 44.5% - Negative: 53.0%   Margin down 1.5 to -8.5% New Polls:  CBS News, Annenberg National Margin:  -1.76% (down from -0.92%) Bush loses Florida

February 20, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.17% EV's:  Bush 274, Dem 264 Pct:     Bush 49.04%, Dem 49.96% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.4% - Disapprove: 44.8%   Margin down 3.0 to 4.6% Bush vs. Dem:  Bush: 44.2% - Dem: 49.6%   Margin down 4.0 to -5.4% Right Track / Re-elect:  Positive: 42.8% - Negative: 49.8%   Margin down 2.1 to -7.0% New Polls:  Associated Press, Gallup, CBS News, Pew Research, Univ of Connecticut National Margin:  -0.92% (down from +2.19%) Bush loses Wisconsin Bush loses New Mexico Bush loses New Hampshire Bush loses Iowa

February 12, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +2.72% EV's:  Bush 300, Dem 238 Pct:     Bush 50.59%, Dem 48.41% Job Approval:  Approve: 51.4% - Disapprove: 43.8%   Margin up 4.4 to 7.6% Bush vs. Dem:  Bush: 46.8% - Dem: 48.2%   Margin up 2.0 to -1.4% Right Track / Re-elect:  Positive: 43.3% - Negative: 48.2%   Margin down 3.1 to -4.9% New Polls:  Associated Press, Gallup, ABC News / Washington Post National Margin:  +2.19% (up from +0.39%) Bush gains Wisconsin!

February 7, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +1.82% EV's:  Bush 290, Dem 248 Pct:     Bush 49.69%, Dem 49.31% Job Approval:  Approve: 49.0% - Disapprove: 45.8%   Margin down 7.8 to 3.2% Bush vs. Dem:  Bush: 45.4% - Dem: 48.8%   Margin down 8.0 to -3.4% Right Track / Re-elect:  Positive: 46.2% - Negative: 48.0%   Margin down 0.2 to -1.8% New Polls:  Newsweek, Fox News / Opinion Dynamics, Associated Press, Gallup National Margin:  +0.39% (down from +6.46%) Bush loses Minnesota Bush loses Maine (district 1) Bush loses Michigan Bush loses Pennsylvania Bush loses Oregon Bush loses Wisconsin

January 31, 2004

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +4.86% EV's:  Bush 356, Dem 182 Pct:     Bush 52.73%, Dem 46.27% New Polls:  Newsweek, Quinnipiac, American Research Group National Margin:  +6.46% (down from +8.96%) Bush loses Washington Bush loses Maine Maine Electoral Votes recalculated by district

January 24, 2004

New Poll: FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics National Margin: +8.96% (down from +11.26%) Bush loses Illinois

January 21, 2004

New Polls:  Zogby, ABC / Washington Post, Gallup, CBS / New York Times National Margin:  +11.26% (down from +14.18%) Bush loses Delaware Bush loses California

January 16, 2004

New Polls:  Gallup, NBC / Wall Street Journal National Margin:  +14.18% (down from +15.25%)

January 13, 2004

New Polls:  Gallup, Pew Research, UPa / Annenberg, Newsweek National Margin:  +15.25% (down from +17.60%) Bush loses Maryland Bush loses Vermont Bush loses New Jersey

January 9, 2004

New Poll:  Fox News / Opinion Dynamics National Margin:  +17.60% (up from +16.14%)

January 7, 2004

New Poll:  Gallup National Margin:  +16.14% (up from +14.78%) Bush gains New Jersey! Bush gains Vermont! Bush gains Maryland!

January 4, 2004

New Polls:  CNN / Time National Margin:  +14.78% (down from +15.78%) Bush loses Vermont Bush loses New Jersey

December 27, 2003

New Polls:  University of Pennsylvania / Annenberg National Margin:  +15.78% (up from +15.18%) Bush gains New Jersey! Bush gains Vermont!