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Election Projection
2004 Edition | |
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2004 Election Projection |
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Election Projection 2004
Click on the map for details Last updated: 11/02/04 |
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Current Projected Tally:
Electoral Votes: Bush 289, Kerry 249 Popular Vote: Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7% |
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State-by-state Summary
This table will be updated every 30 minutes beginning at 7:00pm EST until 2:00am EST. Final Tally: last updated at 8:45 11/03/04 |
| STATE | 2000 Election Result | Polling Average | Election Projection | Caesar's Prediction | 2004 Actual Result | Bush EV's | Kerry EV's |
| National | Gore by 0.5 | Bush by 1.4 | Bush by 0.4 | Bush by 5.4 | Bush by 3 |
286 |
252 |
| Alabama - 9 | Bush by 15 | Bush by 18.0 | Bush by 17.0 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 26 |
9 |
|
| Alaska - 3 | Bush by 31 | Bush by 29.9 | Bush by 30-34 | Bush by 27 |
3 |
|
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| Arizona - 10 | Bush by 5 | Bush by 8.3 | Bush by 7.5 | Bush by 6-9 | Bush by 11 |
10 |
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| Arkansas - 6 | Bush by 7 | Bush by 5.4 | Bush by 6.4 | Bush by 6-9 | Bush by 9 |
6 |
|
| California - 55 | Gore by 12 | Kerry by 9.0 | Kerry by 9.8 | Kerry by 6-9 | Kerry by 11 |
|
55 |
| Colorado - 9 | Bush by 8 | Bush by 4.7 | Bush by 6.3 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 7 |
9 |
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| Connecticut - 7 | Gore by 17 | Kerry by 16.9 | Kerry by 10-14 | Kerry by 10 |
|
7 |
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| Dist. of Col. - 3 | Gore by 76 | Kerry by 75.9 | Kerry by 70+ | Kerry by 81 |
|
3 |
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| Delaware - 3 | Gore by 13 | Kerry by 11.9 | Kerry by 10-14 | Kerry by 7 |
|
3 |
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| Florida - 27 | Bush by 0.01 | Bush by 3.0 | Bush by 2.4 | Bush by 6-9 | Bush by 5 |
27 |
|
| Georgia - 15 | Bush by 12 | Bush by 11.7 | Bush by 12.4 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 18 |
15 |
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| Hawaii - 4 | Gore by 18 | Bush by 1.0 | Kerry by 8.6 | Kerry by 3-5 | Kerry by 9 |
|
4 |
| Idaho - 4 | Bush by 40 | Bush by 40.7 | Bush by 30+ | Bush by 38 |
4 |
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| Illinois - 21 | Gore by 12 | Kerry by 11.3 | Kerry by 11.1 | Kerry by 10-14 | Kerry by 10 |
|
21 |
| Indiana - 11 | Bush by 16 | Bush by 18.3 | Bush by 18.0 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 21 |
11 |
|
| Iowa - 7 | Gore by 0.3 | Kerry by 1.3 | Kerry by 0.4 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 1 |
7 |
|
| Kansas - 6 | Bush by 21 | Bush by 26.0 | Bush by 23.8 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 25 |
6 |
|
| Kentucky - 8 | Bush by 15 | Bush by 19.0 | Bush by 17.8 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 20 |
8 |
|
| Louisiana - 9 | Bush by 8 | Bush by 26.0 | Bush by 16.4 | Bush by 10-14 | Bush by 15 |
9 |
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| Maine - 2 | Gore by 5 | Kerry by 9.5 | Kerry by 7.2 | Kerry by 3-5 | Kerry by 8 |
|
2 |
| Maine (cd-1) - 1 | Gore by 8 | Kerry by 9.5 | Kerry by 8.7 | Kerry by 6-9 | Kerry by 8 |
|
1 |
| Maine (cd-2) - 1 | Gore by 1.8 | Kerry by 9.5 | Kerry by 5.4 | Bush by 3-5 | Kerry by 8 |
|
1 |
| Maryland - 10 | Gore by 16 | Kerry by 13.0 | Kerry by 13.9 | Kerry by 10-14 | Kerry by 13 |
|
10 |
| Massachusetts - 12 | Gore by 27 | Kerry by 14.0 | Kerry by 24.6 | Kerry by 20-29 | Kerry by 25 |
|
12 |
| Michigan - 17 | Gore by 5 | Kerry by 3.0 | Kerry by 3.3 | Bush by 0-2 | Kerry by 3 |
|
17 |
| Minnesota - 10 | Gore by 2.4 | Kerry by 4.7 | Kerry by 3.6 | Bush by 3-5 | Kerry by 3 |
|
10 |
| Mississippi - 6 | Bush by 17 | Bush by 18.6 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 20 |
6 |
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| Missouri - 11 | Bush by 3.3 | Bush by 4.7 | Bush by 4.7 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 8 |
11 |
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| Montana - 3 | Bush by 25 | Bush by 21.0 | Bush by 23.8 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 20 |
3 |
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| Nebraska - 5 | Bush by 29 | Bush by 29.0 | Bush by 29.6 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 35 |
5 |
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| Nevada - 5 | Bush by 3.6 | Bush by 3.7 | Bush by 4.1 | Bush by 6-9 | Bush by 3 |
5 |
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| New Hampshire - 4 | Bush by 1.3 | Kerry by 1.8 | Kerry by 0.3 | Bush by 0-2 | Kerry by 1 |
|
4 |
| New Jersey - 15 | Gore by 16 | Kerry by 6.0 | Kerry by 9.5 | Kerry by 6-9 | Kerry by 7 |
|
15 |
| New Mexico - 5 | Gore by 0.05 | Kerry by 0.3 | Bush by 0.5 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 1 |
5 |
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| New York - 31 | Gore by 25 | Kerry by 16.3 | Kerry by 19.5 | Kerry by 15-19 | Kerry by 18 |
|
31 |
| North Carolina - 15 | Bush by 13 | Bush by 7.7 | Bush by 9.5 | Bush by 10-14 | Bush by 12 |
15 |
|
| North Dakota - 3 | Bush by 28 | Bush by 20.0 | Bush by 26.9 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 27 |
3 |
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| Ohio - 20 | Bush by 3.5 | Bush by 1.3 | Bush by 2.7 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 2 |
20 |
|
| Oklahoma - 7 | Bush by 22 | Bush by 31.0 | Bush by 28.1 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 32 |
7 |
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| Oregon - 7 | Gore by 0.5 | Kerry by 6.4 | Kerry by 3.8 | Bush by 0-2 | Kerry by 4 |
|
7 |
| Pennsylvania - 21 | Gore by 4.2 | Kerry by 2.0 | Kerry by 2.4 | Bush by 3-5 | Kerry by 2 |
|
21 |
| Rhode Island - 4 | Gore by 29 | Kerry by 13.0 | Kerry by 23.7 | Kerry by 30+ | Kerry by 21 |
|
4 |
| South Carolina - 8 | Bush by 16 | Bush by 14.0 | Bush by 15.4 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 17 |
8 |
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| South Dakota - 3 | Bush by 23 | Bush by 20.5 | Bush by 22.6 | Bush by 20-29 | Bush by 21 |
3 |
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| Tennessee - 11 | Bush by 3.9 | Bush by 11.1 | Bush by 10.9 | Bush by 10-14 | Bush by 14 |
11 |
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| Texas - 34 | Bush by 21 | Bush by 24.0 | Bush by 23.0 | Bush by 15-19 | Bush by 23 |
34 |
|
| Utah - 5 | Bush by 41 | Bush by 45 | Bush by 43.0 | Bush by 30+ | Bush by 44 |
5 |
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| Vermont - 3 | Gore by 10 | Kerry by 13 | Kerry by 10.8 | Kerry by 15-19 | Kerry by 20 |
|
3 |
| Virginia - 13 | Bush by 8 | Bush by 6.3 | Bush by 7.5 | Bush by 6-9 | Bush by 9 |
13 |
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| Washington - 11 | Gore by 5.6 | Kerry by 7.4 | Kerry by 6.4 | Kerry by 3-5 | Kerry by 7 |
|
11 |
| West Virginia - 5 | Bush by 6.4 | Bush by 6.3 | Bush by 7.0 | Bush by 3-5 | Bush by 13 |
5 |
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| Wisconsin - 10 | Gore by 0.2 | Kerry by 1.3 | Bush by 1.1 | Bush by 3-5 | Kerry by 1 |
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| Wyoming - 3 | Bush by 40 | Bush by 41.3 | Bush by 30+ | Bush by 40 |
3 |
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