July 25, 2004:  Last December, I posted an analysis of the 2004 presidential contest in all fifty states.  In that analysis, I included my prediction of the winner in each state.  You can read those early conclusions by clicking here.  The final count was very optimistic for President Bush.  As time has passed, my optimism has waned a bit, and I feel the need to revise my predictions.  Throughout the remainder of the election season, I'll keep my up-to-date predictions here.  From time to time, as circumstances move me, I'll tweak these predictions to reflect my current sense of how the November elections will unfold. I will post a notice on the main weblog anytime I adjust these predictions.  Keep in mind as you read that these predictions are separate from the Election Projection.  The projection is an objective evaluation of the current state of the presidential race.  These predictions are my subjective opinion of the election's eventual result.

Here are my final predictions:

Electoral Votes
July 25:  Bush 356, Kerry 182 - FINAL

Alaska - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 30-34%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 30-34%

Arkansas - 6
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 6-9%
July 25:  If Kerry had chosen Clark as his running mate, Arkansas would be a serious battleground state.  Since he didn't, I'll give Arkansas to Bush by a close, yet comfortable, margin.  Bush by 6-9%

Arizona - 10
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 6-9%
July 25:  This state is beoming more and more hispanic as time passes.  For the time being, this trend favors the Democrats.  However, Bush is still strong enough to carry the state once again in 2004.  Bush by 6-9%

California - 55
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 6-9%
July 25:  THE BIG ONE. I'm of the mind that Ahnold's victory in California has the potential to help Bush capture Cal's 55 electoral votes.  Since California's economy is rebounding even as the national economy is booming, Arnold's influence can be magnified.  The big question in my mind is how much the GOP governor will be willing to campaign for the President.  If he decides to get behind Bush and utilize the resource at his disposal, California may yet be in play.  If he is reluctant to go all out, Kerry will probably not need to worry about the Golden State.  I'm guessing Arnold will take a measured role in Bush's California campaign, and the Democrat will pocket the nation's biggest electoral prize once again.  Kerry by 6-9%
October 30:  My guess concerning the Governator's participation seems to be correct.  I'm sticking to my initial margin of victory for Senator Kerry.

Colorado - 9
FINAL PREDICTION:   Bush by 3-5%
July 25:  This is a solid red state that is beginning to take on a more purple shade.  Democrats are getting stronger here, and the contest for the open senate seat will likely be very close.  Even so, the GOP remains the stronger party of the two, and Bush will win comfortably.  Bush by 6-9%
October 30:  Polls here have been a lot closer than expected.  I still believe this will not be a razor-thin victory for the President, but I'm cutting the margin in response to these very tight polls.  Bush by 3-5% 

Connecticut - 7
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 10-14%
July 25:  Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004.  Kerry by 15-19%
September 16:  Kerry by 10-14% 

District of Columbia - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:    Kerry by 70+%
July 25:  Yawn. Bush would have to win 85% of the national vote to have a chance here.  Maybe "DC" stands for "Democratic Community." Kerry by 70+%

Delaware - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 10-14%
July 25:  The GOP has been making some solid gains in party affiliation here since 2000.  However, not enough to take the state's 3 electoral votes.  Kerry by 10-14%

Florida - 27
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 6-9%
July 25:  This is the controversial one.  I should say this was the controversial one.  Jeb Bush's 13-point victory in 2002 showed that Floridians are becoming more Republican, in spite of 2000.  As the election draws near, Bush's improving job approval will push this state from battleground territory to comfortable red.  Bush by 6-9%

Georgia - 15
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 15-19%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 15-19%

Hawaii - 4
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 3-5%
July 25:  There have been some GOP noises in paradise, but nothing that comes close to challenging for this Democratic stronghold.  Kerry by 15-19%
September 16:  Kerry by 10-14%
October 30:  Kerry by 3-5%

Idaho - 4
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 30+%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 30+%

Illinois - 21
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 10-14%
July 25:  In my original predictions, I have the President winning Illinois.  That, I must say in hindsight, was my most fool-hearty pick.  The Democrats are strong in Illinois, and Barak Obama's presence on the ballot will draw out a large number of African-Americans. Obama will take the open GOP senate seat by a laughable margin.  Kerry will take the 21 electoral votes with ease.
Kerry by 10-14%

Indiana - 11
FINAL PREDICTION:    Bush by 15-19%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 15-19%

Iowa - 7
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5%  
July 25:  Gore won this state by only a hair in 2000.  The GOP has gained strength ever since and now hold a 7% advantage in party affiliation, according to a Pew Research poll out late last year.  Bush will win, and it will be a surprisingly comfortable margin.
Bush by 6-9%
October 30:  Well, maybe not so comforatble a margin.  Bush by 3-5%   

Kansas - 6
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Kentucky - 8
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 15-19%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 15-19%

Louisiana - 9
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 10-14%  
July 25:  In 2000, this state was one of the closest southern state.  Nevertheless, Kerry has abandoned running advertisements here.  Expect Bush to widen his victory margin in November.   Bush by 10-14%

Maine - 4
FINAL PREDICTION:   See below
July 25:  Nader on the ballot in 2000 caused the race here to be decided by only 5.1%. I don't think he will pull 5.7% of the vote this time.  On the other hand, I do expect Bush to run stronger in November than last time.  I'm calling for a split decision, a most rare occurence in American politics.  Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes differently than the other 48 states.  Two EVs go to the statewide winner, and one EV goes to the winner of each congressional district.  Give the over-all vote to Kerry, along with district one.  Give district two to Bush.
Statewide: 
    July 25:  Kerry by 3-5% 
    September 16:  Kerry by 0-2% - FINAL
District one:
    July 25:  Kerry by 6-9% - FINAL
District two:
    July 25:  Bush by 3-5% - FINAL

Maryland - 10
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 10-14%
July 25:  Only a major landslide would bring Maryland into Bush's camp.  This is Democrat country.  Kerry by 15-19%  
September 16:  Kerry by 10-14% 

Massachusetts - 12
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 20-29% 
July 25:  Mark my words, Kerry's state will reject his candidacy and vote overwhelmingly for Bush.  The state that went for Gore by over 25% will vote GOP in November....NOT!  Hehe, had you going there, didn't I?  Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004.
Kerry by 20-29%

Michigan - 17
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 0-2%
July 25:  Strong GOP-ward shift in party affiliation and Bush's lifting of the steel tariffs bode well for him in 2004.  The unions won't be strong enough to deny him this battleground state as the economy's improvement will soften the anti-Bush sentiment (the oft-noted Arab population will be a wash).  Expect Michigan to be one of the three or four closest contests in 2004.  Bush by 0-2%
October 30:  Honestly, things haven't improved the way I had hoped.  Still, polls are indicating a surprisingly tight race here, and I believe the same-sex marriage issue on the ballot will bring out Bush supporters en masse.  I sticking with Bush by the slimmest of margins, although with a certain degree of trepidation.

Minnesota - 10
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5%
July 25:  Wow, has this state changed in recent years.  In the 1990's, it was as progressive as any state in the country, electing such liberal stalwarts as the late Paul Wellstone.  However, those days are gone.  The GOP now holds the Governorship and a Senate seat, as well as a 3-point lead in party affiliation.  All of which lands this state squarely in the "Close Bush" category.  Bush by 3-5%

Mississippi - 6
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Missouri - 11
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5%  
July 25:  Always the bellweather, Mo was no different in 2000.  This prescient state will be right again in 2004 and go for Bush by a comfortable margin.  Bush by 6-9%  
October 30:  In the light of Jim Talent's smaller-than-expected victory in the 2002 senate race, I'm backing off the President's margin here just a tad.  African-Americans in St. Louis and Kansas City tend to turn out big time.  That fact alone should make this race as close or closer than the polls show.  Bush by 3-5% 

Montana - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Nebraska - 5
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%  
July 25:  Like Maine, Nebraska doesn't award all its electoral votes to the statewide winner.  In this state, however, that doesn't matter.  Bush will take them all. Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.   Bush by 20-29%

Nevada - 5
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 6-9%  
July 25:  Democrats are hoping the radioactive waste issue and the strong candidacy Harry Reid in the senate race will enable Kerry to overtake Bush here.  Ain't gonna happen.  Bush wins by a little.  Bush by 3-5%
September 16:  Bush by 6-9%

New Hampshire - 4
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 0-2%    
July 25:  This state is certainly unique.  Not only in the fact that it is the most conservative of the northeastern states, but also in the complexity of its political makeup.  While Bush took this little state in 2000, the margin was razor-thin.  In fact, according to national exit poll results, New Hampshire would have gone to Gore had Nader not been on the ballot.  Yet, since then, the voters here have elected a Republican senator, representative, and governor.  And yet again, polls this year have been all over the map, some giving Kerry substantial leads of 10% or more.  When the dust settles, look for Bush to come out on top by another very close margin.  Bush by 3-5%
September 16:  Bush by 0-2%   

New Jersey - 15
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 6-9%  
July 25:  I've heard rumblings among GOP faithful that this state might be in play this year due to the 9/11 attacks across the river.  A couple of outlying polls showing a close race have added momentum to this stream of thought.  The Blogging Caesar doesn't buy it.  New Jersey is way too democratic to go to the GOP.  Barring a 1984-style landslide, Kerry will win very comfortably here.
Kerry by 10-14%
September 16:  Well, maybe things are shifting toward the GOP this year.  McGreevey's ordeal may be helping.  The GOP convention that went on right next door and right next to ground zero is helping for sure.  I still say Kerry wins, but not by double-digits.  Kerry by 6-9%  

New Mexico - 5
FINAL PREDICTION:   Bush by 3-5%
July 25:  In 2000, this state was the closest Gore victory of all.  The slightest breeze in the Bush's direction nationally will capture New Mexico for the President.  The Blogging Caesar's forecast calls for a windy day in November.  Count this state for Bush.
Bush by 3-5%

New York - 31
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 15-19%  
July 25:  I know some GOPers want to think this state could also be in play.  Even if Guiliani had challenged Schumer for his senate seat or joined Bush on the ticket, Bush would not have gotten close to Kerry here.  A 45% slice of the vote would be an upset.
Kerry by 20-29%
September 16:  New York will not vote for a GOP candidate any time in next 25 years.  This year Bush will get as close an any Republican will during that time.  How 'bout those polls showing a single-digit race here?  Kerry will still win going away, but those numbers sure look good! Kerry by 15-19%

North Carolina - 15
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 10-14%  
July 25:  An interesting dynamic is at play here this election.  Normally, a candidate for president can expect a bump in his running mate's home state.  That may very well be the case this year, but John Edwards isn't actually well-liked by the majoriy of North Carolinians.  I expect Edwards will have a positive effect for Kerry.   It won't be enough, though, to keep Rove and Co. up at night. Hometown boy notwithstanding, this is still Bush country.   Bush by 10-14%

North Dakota - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Ohio - 20
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5% 
July 25:  This has been billed as THE battleground state of 2004.  Granted, Bush will find it next to impossible to lose here and maintain his current residence, but The Blogging Caesar says he doesn't need to worry.  Ohio will be tight, but states like Washington and Michigan will be tighter.  The job situation is improving rapidly here, and the negative opinion of Bush will lose its edge for many undecided or Kerry-leaning Ohioans.  Bush by 3-5%   
September 16:  Bush is starting to separate himself from Kerry here.  Bush by 6-9%
October 30:  I'm hearing rumblings that the GOP ground game here is second to none.  Nevertheless, polls are very tight as election day nears, so I feel I must tighten the President's predicted victory margin.  I'm still confident he will win Ohio and by enough to avoid a legal contest.  Bush by 3-5%  

Oklahoma - 7
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Oregon - 7
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 0-2%   
July 25:  Whether or not Nader gets on the ballot here, Bush will finally breakthrough on the left coast.  Oregonians are not as liberal as people think on the whole (California and Washington are much more so).  Pro-logging positions play surprisingly well for the GOP here.  The Greens, which are quite large in number here, are against them, but those whose livelihoods depend on the logging industry feel otherwise.  Bush will squeeze out a close victory here.  Bush by 0-2%
September 16:  Looks like Nader may get on the ballot after all.  Pending any further court action to remove him, I'm bumping up Bush's margin of victory.  Bush by 3-5%
October 30:  Since my September 16 update, I believe Nader will not be on the Oregon ballot.  This means it will be much harder for Bush to pull off an upset, which a win for him would certainly be.  Practically all polls from this state have Kerry out in front. However, I just have a gut feeling Bush will outperform those polls and win here close, probably by 1 point or less.  If you think I'm crazy, you may very well be right about this pick!Bush by 0-2% 

Pennsylvania - 21
FINAL PREDICTION: Bush by 3-5%  
July 25:  Bush is going to run very strong here.  He has spent a bundle here and has visited 30 times.  The Dems won here in 2000 strictly on the strength of GOTV operations.  The GOP will match them in November and deliver PA to Bush by a very close margin.  Bush by 3-5%

Rhode Island - 4
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 30+%
July 25:  Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004.  Kerry by 30+%

South Carolina - 8
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 15-19%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Edwards won't be a factor.  Bush by 15-19%

South Dakota - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 20-29%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 20-29%

Tennessee - 11
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 10-14%
July 25:  The absence of the native will result in a normal double-digit southern victory for Bush.   Bush by 10-14%

Texas - 34
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 15-19%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 15-19%

Utah - 5
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 30+%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 30+%

Vermont - 3
FINAL PREDICTION: Kerry by 15-19%  
July 25:  Bernie Sanders holds a statewide elected office.  'Nuf said.  Vermont says, "Color me blue."  Kerry by 20-29%  
September 16:  I'm now seeing this turning out a little closer than I originally thought.  Kerry by 15-19%

Virginia - 13
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 6-9%   
July 25:  This southern state is on the verge of becoming a battleground.  It is less conservative than you would expect below the Mason-Dixon line.  Nevertheless, Bush will pull out a solid victory.  However, if things turn especially sour for the President between now and election day, look for Virginia to be ripe for the picking.   Bush by 6-9%

Washington - 11
FINAL PREDICTION:  Kerry by 3-5%  
July 25:  In this traditionally Democratic-leaning state the GOP surprisingly holds a 1-point advantage in party affiliation.   That won't matter, though it almost will.  Another extremely close outcome.  This one goes to Kerry.  Kerry by 0-2%
October 30:  Thinking again, Washington won't be so close.  Kerry by 3-5%

West Virginia - 5
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5%
July 25:  Were it not for the fiasco in Florida, West Virginia would have been the talk of the news show circuit in 2000.  Gore should have taken this one.  Had he won, there would have no recounts in Florida.  There must be a fundamental shift taking place in West Virginia because polls are consistently showing Bush in the lead.   The Blogging Caesar says Bush will win here again.
Bush by 3-5%

Wisconsin - 10
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 3-5%   
July 25:  The GOP re-election campaign has its sights on this state. And well they should.  Wisconsin is trending Republican lately. The Bush team's focus will pay dividends - Bush wins close to take another blue state from 2000.   Bush by 3-5%

Wyoming - 3
FINAL PREDICTION:  Bush by 30+%
July 25:  Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.  Bush by 30+%

Well, there you have it!  Send your comments to thebloggingcaesar@electionprojection.com