Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

Connecticut

Latest News and Updates

Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes

Gov: Research 2000: Rell 58%, DeStefano 36% - 11/02/06

CD-2: Research 2000: Courtney 48%, Simmons 47% - 11/01/06

CD-5: Research 2000: Murphy 46%, Johnson 43% - 11/01/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Lieberman 49%, Lamont 37% - 11/01/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rell 59%, DeStefano 35% - 11/01/06

CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06

CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Courtney 51%, Simmons 45% - 10/31/06

CD-4: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/31/06

CD-4: Constituent Dynamics: Shays 49%, Farrell 42% - 10/31/06

CD-5: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06

CD-5: Constituent Dynamics: Murphy 45%, Johnson 40% - 10/31/06

CD-4: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/30/06

CD-4: Research 2000: Farrell 47%, Shays 43% - 10/30/06

CD-5: University of Connecticut: Murphy 46%, Johnson 42% - 10/30/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Lieberman 48%, Lamont 40% - 10/30/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rell 57%, DeStefano 35% - 10/30/06

CD-2: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Simmons 50%, Courtney 43% - 10/27/06

CD-2: Grove Insights (D): Courtney 45%, Simmons 42% - 10/27/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Lieberman +5 (up 3) - 10/27/06

CD-4: University of Connecticut: Shays 43%, Farrell 43% - 10/24/06

Sen: ARG: Lieberman 49%, Lamont 37%, Schlesinger 8% - 10/23/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rell +43 (down 5) - 10/23/06

CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06

CD-2: University of Connecticut: Simmons 46%, Courtney 44% - 10/21/06

CD-4: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06

CD-5: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Lieberman 52%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 6% - 10/20/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rell 59%, DeStefano 33% - 10/20/06

CD-4: Bennett Petts (D): Shays 44%, Farrell 40% - 10/17/06

CD-5: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/17/06

CD-5: Grove Insights (D): Murphy 45%, Johnson 40% - 10/17/06

CD-5: Tracking initiated - 10/17/06

Gov: University of Connecticut.: Rell 50%, DeStefano 28% - 10/16/06

Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06

CD-2: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

CD-4: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

Sen: SurveyUSA: Lieberman 53%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 4% - 10/12/06

Sen: Univ. of Conn.: Lieberman 48%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 4% - 10/12/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rell 58%, DeStefano 33% - 10/07/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Lieberman +2 (down 8) - 10/07/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Lieberman 50%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 6% - 10/05/06

CD-4: University of Connecticut: Shays 44%, Farrell 40% - 10/03/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Lieberman 49%, Lamont 39%, Schlesinger 5% - 09/28/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rell 63%, DeStefano 30% - 09/28/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rell +48 (up 3) - 09/25/06

Sen: ARG: Lieberman 47%, Lamont 45%, Schlesinger 3% - 09/20/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Lieberman 45%, Lamont 43%, Schlesinger 5% - 09/19/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rell 60%, DeStefano 32% - 09/19/06

Sen: SurveyUSA: Lieberman 51%, Lamont 38%, Schlesinger 7% - 09/13/06

CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06

CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Courtney 51%, Simmons 45% - 09/07/06

CD-4: Constituent Dynamics: Shays 49%, Farrell 42% - 09/07/06

Sen: Public Opinion: Lieberman 51%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 4% - 09/07/06

CD-2: DCCC: Courtney 41%, Simmons 40% - 09/06/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rell +45 (up 3) - 08/27/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Lieberman 45%, Lamont 43%, Schlesinger 6% - 08/23/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rell 61%, DeStefano 31% - 08/23/06

Sen: ARG: Lieberman 44%, Lamont 42%, Schlesinger 3% - 08/22/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Lieberman +10 (down 3) - 08/18/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Lieberman 53%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 4% - 08/17/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rell 64%, DeStefano 32% - 08/17/06

CD-4: Congressional Quarterly: Leans GOP to No Clear Favorite - 08/14/06

Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak IND Gain to Mod IND Gain - 08/14/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Lieberman 46%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 6% - 08/14/06

Sen: RATING CHANGE: Strong DEM Hold to Weak IND Gain - 08/09/06

Tracking initiated - 08/09/06

Conservative Ranking

Connecticut is the 6th least conservative state, voting 12.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Connecticut is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

Connecticut ranks 38th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

Incumbent: DEM incumbent Joseph Lieberman sought a fourth term in 2006. He lost in the primary but will run as an independent in the general election.

GOP Candidates

Alan Schlesinger - Former Connecticut State Representative

Democrat Candidates

Joseph Lieberman - Incumbent

Ned Lamont

Independent Candidates

Joseph Lieberman - U.S. Senator from Connecticut

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Joseph Lieberman +9.9 - IND pick-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Schlesinger	Lamont	Lieberman
Quinnipiac	11/05	6%	38%	50%
SurveyUSA	11/04		38%	49%
Research 2000	11/01		37%	49%
Rasmussen	10/28		40%	48%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor Lieberman

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	10.8	85%	9.1
Incumbent approval	5	15%	0.8

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Lieberman +9.9	Mod IND Gain
November 1, 2006	Lieberman +9.8	Mod IND Gain
October 30, 2006	Lieberman +11.2	Mod IND Gain
October 27, 2006	Lieberman +13.1	Mod IND Gain
October 21, 2006	Lieberman +10.5	Mod IND Gain
October 12, 2006	Lieberman +7.6	Mod IND Gain
October 7, 2006	Lieberman +7.7	Mod IND Gain
October 5, 2006	Lieberman +8.9	Mod IND Gain
September 28, 2006	Lieberman +7.2	Mod IND Gain
September 19, 2006	Lieberman +8.5	Mod IND Gain
September 13, 2006	Lieberman +9.2	Mod IND Gain
September 7, 2006	Lieberman +8.3	Mod IND Gain
August 23, 2006	Lieberman +6.0	Mod IND Gain
August 18, 2006	Lieberman +8.7	Mod IND Gain
August 17, 2006	Lieberman +9.2	Mod IND Gain
August 14, 2006	Lieberman +6.3	Mod IND Gain
August 9, 2006	Lieberman +2.0	Weak IND Gain
Preliminary	-----	Strong DEM Hold

Governor's Race

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Jodi Rell, who became governor after the resignation of former GOP Gov. John Rowland in 2004, is seeking her first elected term. She faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Jodi Rell - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Dannel Malloy - Stamford Mayor

John DeStefano - New Haven Mayor

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Jodi Rell +24.1

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Rell	DeStefano
Research 2000	11/02	58%	36%
Quinnipiac	11/01	59%	35%
Rasmussen	10/28	57%	35%

Projection Data

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	22.7	80%	18.1
Incumbent approval	43	15%	6.5
State partisanship	-10.3	5%	-0.5

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Rell +24.1	Strong GOP Hold
November 2, 2006	Rell +24.1	Strong GOP Hold
November 1, 2006	Rell +24.3	Strong GOP Hold
October 30, 2006	Rell +24.6	Strong GOP Hold
October 23, 2006	Rell +25.4	Strong GOP Hold
October 21, 2006	Rell +26.2	Strong GOP Hold
October 16, 2006	Rell +28.0	Strong GOP Hold
October 7, 2006	Rell +29.9	Strong GOP Hold
September 28, 2006	Rell +31.1	Strong GOP Hold
September 25, 2006	Rell +29.1	Strong GOP Hold
September 19, 2006	Rell +28.6	Strong GOP Hold
August 23, 2006	Rell +30.6	Strong GOP Hold
August 17, 2006	Rell +28.6	Strong GOP Hold
August 9, 2006	Rell +30.6	Strong GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Strong GOP Hold

Competitive House Races

District 2

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Rob Simmons seeks a fourth term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Rob Simmons - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Joe Courtney - 2002 House District 2 Candidate

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Joe Courtney +1.6 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/13	Toss Up
Charlie Cook	06/29	Toss Up
Larry Sabato	11/06	Courtney by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	07/10	Simmons by 4 (Leans GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Simmons	Courtney
Research 2000	10/30	47%	48%
Constituent Dynamics	10/26	45%	51%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	0.5	45%	0.2
Head-to-head polls	-3.5	50%	-1.8
District partisanship	-1.0	5%	-0.1

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Courtney +1.6	Weak DEM Gain
November 1, 2006	Courtney +1.2	Weak DEM Gain
October 31, 2006	Courtney +0.3	Weak DEM Gain
October 27, 2006	Simmons +1.4	Weak GOP Hold
October 21, 2006	Simmons +1.2	Weak GOP Hold
October 16, 2006	Courtney +0.9	Weak DEM Gain
October 13, 2006	Courtney +0.2	Weak DEM Gain
October 7, 2006	Courtney +0.7	Weak DEM Gain
September 7, 2006	Courtney +1.2	Weak DEM Gain
September 6, 2006	Simmons +0.6	Weak GOP Hold
July 10, 2006	Simmons +1.1	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Hold

District 4

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Christopher Shays is up for re-election to a 10th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Christopher Shays - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Diane Farrell - Westport Selectwoman and 2004 Candidate

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Christopher Shays +1.0

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/21	Toss Up
Charlie Cook	06/29	Toss Up
Larry Sabato	11/06	Farrell by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	08/14	Toss Up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Shays	Farrell
Research 2000	10/28	43%	47%
Constituent Dynamics	10/26	52%	43%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-0.5	45%	-0.2
Head-to-head polls	2.5	50%	1.3
District partisanship	-1.0	5%	-0.1

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Shays +1.0	Weak GOP Hold
October 31, 2006	Shays +1.2	Weak GOP Hold
October 30, 2006	Farrell +1.1	Weak DEM Gain
October 24, 2006	Shays +0.7	Weak GOP Hold
October 21, 2006	Shays +1.7	Weak GOP Hold
October 17, 2006	Shays +1.9	Weak GOP Hold
October 16, 2006	Shays +1.3	Weak GOP Hold
October 13, 2006	Shays +1.8	Weak GOP Hold
October 3, 2006	Shays +2.7	Weak GOP Hold
September 7, 2006	Shays +1.7	Weak GOP Hold
August 14, 2006	Shays +0.2	Weak GOP Hold
July 10, 2006	Shays +1.1	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Hold

District 5

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Nancy Johnson is up for re-election to a 13th term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Nancy Johnson - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Chris Murphy - Connecticut State Senator

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Chris Murphy +0.1 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	11/06	Murphy by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Charlie Cook	10/21	Toss Up
Larry Sabato	11/06	Murphy by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	11/06	Toss Up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Johnson	Murphy
Research 2000	10/29	46%	43%
UConn	10/28	42%	46%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-1.0	45%	-0.5
Head-to-head polls	-0.5	50%	-0.3
District partisanship	11.5	5%	0.6

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Murphy +0.1	Weak DEM Gain
November 1, 2006	Murphy +1.3	Weak DEM Gain
October 31, 2006	Murphy +1.5	Weak DEM Gain
October 30, 2006	Johnson +0.7	Weak GOP Hold
October 21, 2006	Johnson +3.2	Weak GOP Hold
October 17, 2006	Johnson +3.9	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: John Larson (D)-inc vs. Scott MacLean (R)

District 3: Rosa DeLauro (D)-inc vs. Joseph Vollano (R)

Election Timeline

May 23, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

August 8, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	3 GOP, 2 DEM
State Government
Governor	GOP
Lt. Governor - special circumstance	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	12 GOP, 24 DEM
State House - DEM control	52 GOP, 98 DEM