Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

Florida

Latest News and Updates

Sen: Strategic Vision: Nelson 59%, Harris 33% - 11/02/06

Gov: Strategic Vision: Crist 50%, Davis 44% - 11/02/06

CD-13: Constituent Dynamics: Jennings 49%, Buchanan 47% - 10/31/06

CD-22: Constituent Dynamics: Klein 50%, Shaw 48% - 10/31/06

Sen: St. Peterburg Times: Nelson 56%, Harris 30% - 10/30/06

Gov: St. Peterburg Times: Crist 48%, Davis 42% - 10/30/06

CD-13: Hamilton Beattie (D): Jennings 52%, Buchanan 41% - 10/27/06

CD-13: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06

CD-16: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06

CD-22: Anzalone-Lizst (D): Klein 48%, Shaw 42% - 10/27/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Nelson +5 (up 2) - 10/27/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Crist 52%, Davis 41% - 10/27/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Nelson 58%, Harris 35% - 10/25/06

Gov: Strategic Vision: Crist 51%, Davis 42% - 10/25/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 64%, Harris 29% - 10/11/06

CD-22: Research 2000: Shaw 48%, Klein 43% - 10/23/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Crist 46%, Davis 44% - 10/23/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Bush +13 (down 7) - 10/23/06

Sen: Mason-Dixon: Nelson 57%, Harris 31% - 10/20/06

Gov: Mason-Dixon: Crist 50%, Davis 39% - 10/20/06

CD-16: Research 2000: Mahoney 48%, Negron 41% - 10/16/06

Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06

CD-13: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06

CD-13: Constituent Dynamics: Jennings 47%, Buchanan 44% - 10/13/06

CD-13: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

CD-16: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

CD-13: Pundit rating change - 10/07/06

CD-16: Pundit rating change - 10/07/06

Sen: SurveyUSA: Nelson 55%, Harris 37% - 10/11/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Crist 54%, Davis 38% - 10/11/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 61%, Harris 33% - 10/11/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Crist 53%, Davis 43% - 10/10/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Nelson +3 (down 6) - 10/07/06

CD-13: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06

CD-13: Tracking initiated - 10/07/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Nelson 54%, Harris 37% - 10/04/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Crist 54%, Davis 38% - 10/04/06

CD-16: RATING CHANGE: not competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 10/03/06

CD-16: Constituent Dynamics: Mahoney 49%, Negron* 46% - 10/03/06

Sen: Mason-Dixon: Nelson 53%, Harris 35% - 10/02/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Nelson 56%, Harris 33% - 09/27/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Crist 45%, Davis 40% - 09/27/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Nelson 59%, Harris 31% - 09/27/06

Gov: Strategic Vision: Crist 50%, Davis 40% - 09/27/06

Gov: Mason-Dixon: Crist 51%, Davis 36% - 09/27/06

Sen: Research 2000: Nelson 55%, Harris 37% - 09/25/06

Gov: Research 2000: Crist 49%, Davis 43% - 09/25/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Bush +20 (up 10) - 09/25/06

Sen: SurveyUSA: Nelson 53%, Harris 38% - 09/15/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/15/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Crist 49%, Davis 41% - 09/15/06

Tracking initiated (Gov and Sen) and primary winners posted - 09/08/06

CD-22: Constituent Dynamics: Shaw 52%, Klein 44% - 09/07/06

CD-22: Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

Conservative Ranking

Florida is the 26th most conservative state, voting 2.5% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Florida's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking

Florida ranks 28th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

Incumbent: DEM incumbent Bill Nelson is re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Katherine Harris - Florida Representative to the U.S. House

William McBride

LeRoy Collins, Jr.

Peter Monroe

Democrat Candidates

Bill Nelson - Incumbent

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Bill Nelson +23.1

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Harris	Nelson
Strategic Vision	11/02	33%	59%
St. Petersburg Times	10/30	30%	56%
Quinnipiac	10/25	29%	64%
Mason-Dixon	10/20	31%	57%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	28.3	80%	22.6
Incumbent approval	5	15%	0.8
State partisanship	-5.0	5%	-0.3

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
November 2, 2006	Nelson +23.1	Strong DEM Hold
October 30, 2006	Nelson +22.5	Strong DEM Hold
October 27, 2006	Nelson +22.9	Strong DEM Hold
October 25, 2006	Nelson +22.6	Strong DEM Hold
October 21, 2006	Nelson +18.9	Strong DEM Hold
October 11, 2006	Nelson +17.6	Strong DEM Hold
October 7, 2006	Nelson +15.6	Strong DEM Hold
October 4, 2006	Nelson +16.5	Strong DEM Hold
October 2, 2006	Nelson +17.4	Strong DEM Hold
September 27, 2006	Nelson +17.9	Strong DEM Hold
September 25, 2006	Nelson +16.0	Strong DEM Hold
September 15, 2006	Nelson +16.3	Strong DEM Hold
September 8, 2006	Nelson +19.5	Strong DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Strong DEM Hold

Governor's Race

OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Jeb Bush is finishing up his 2nd term. He is term-limited and cannot seek a third term.

GOP Candidates

Charlie Crist - Florida Attorney General

Tom Gallagher - Florida Chief Financial Officer

Democrat Candidates

Jim Davis - Florida Representative to the U.S. House

Rod Smith - Florida State Senator

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Charlie Crist +6.5

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Crist	Davis
Strategic Vision	11/02	50%	44%
St. Petersburg Times	10/30	48%	42%
Rasmussen	10/27	52%	41%
Quinnipiac	10/23	46%	44%
Mason-Dixon	10/20	50%	39%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	6.3	90%	5.6
Incumbent approval	13	5%	0.7
State partisanship	5.0	5%	0.3

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
November 2, 2006	Crist +6.5	Mod GOP Hold
October 30, 2006	Crist +7.9	Mod GOP Hold
October 27, 2006	Crist +8.3	Mod GOP Hold
October 25, 2006	Crist +7.5	Mod GOP Hold
October 23, 2006	Crist +10.3	Mod GOP Hold
October 21, 2006	Crist +12.1	Mod GOP Hold
October 11, 2006	Crist +12.8	Mod GOP Hold
October 10, 2006	Crist +11.5	Mod GOP Hold
October 4, 2006	Crist +11.2	Mod GOP Hold
September 27, 2006	Crist +9.2	Mod GOP Hold
September 25, 2006	Crist +6.7	Mod GOP Hold
September 15, 2006	Crist +6.2	Mod GOP Hold
September 8, 2006	Crist +4.4	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Hold

Competitive House Races

District 13

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Katherine Harris is running for the Senate.

GOP Candidates

Vern Buchanan

Democrat Candidates

Christine Jennings

Election Projection: Christine Jennings +1.7 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/27	Jennings by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Charlie Cook	10/27	Jennings by 4 (Leans DEM)
Larry Sabato	10/07	Toss Up
Congressional Quarterly	10/07	Buchanan by 4 (Leans GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Buchanan	Jennings
Constituent Dynamics	10/31	47%	49%
Hamilton Beattie(D)	10/04	41%	52%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-0.5	45%	-0.2
Head-to-head polls**	-3.8	50%	-1.8
District partisanship	6.5	5%	0.3
** - partisan poll adjusted by 3%

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
October 31, 2006	Jennings +1.7	Weak DEM Gain
October 27, 2006	Jennings +1.3	Weak DEM Gain
October 16, 2006	Jennings +1.5	Weak DEM Gain
October 13, 2006	Jennings +1.3	Weak DEM Gain
October 7, 2006	Buchanan +0.6	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

District 16

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Mark Foley resigned. His name will stay on the ballot, but votes cast for him will be given to his GOP replacement, Joe Negron.

GOP Candidates

Joe Negron

Democrat Candidates

Tim Mahoney

Election Projection: Tim Mahoney +3.7 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/27	Toss Up
Charlie Cook	10/27	Toss Up
Larry Sabato	10/07	Mahoney by 4 (Lean GOP)
Congressional Quarterly	10/07	Mahoney by 4 (Lean GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Negron	Mahoney
Research 2000	10/16	41%	48%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-2.0	70%	-1.4
Head-to-head polls	-7.0	25%	-1.8
District partisanship	10.0	5%	0.5
Other issues	Adjustment:		-1.0

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
October 27, 2006	Mahoney +3.7	Weak DEM Gain
October 16, 2006	Mahoney +4.6	Weak DEM Gain
October 13, 2006	Mahoney +3.7	Weak DEM Gain
October 13, 2006	Mahoney +4.4	Weak DEM Gain
October 7, 2006	Mahoney +2.4	Weak DEM Gain
October 3, 2006	Mahoney +1.2	Weak DEM Gain
Preliminary	-----	not competitive

District 22

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Clay Shaw seeks a thirteenth term in 2006. He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Clay Shaw - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Ron Klein - Florida State Senator

Election Projection: Clay Shaw +0.1

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/13	Toss Up
Charlie Cook	06/29	Toss Up
Larry Sabato	09/03	Toss Up
Congressional Quarterly	10/13	Toss Up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Shaw	Klein
Constituent Dynamics	10/31	48%	50%
Anzalone-Lizst (D)	10/27	42%	48%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	0.0	45%	0.0
Head-to-head polls**	-1.0	50%	-0.5
District partisanship	13.0	5%	0.7
** - partisan poll adjusted by 3%

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
October 31, 2006	Shaw +0.1	Weak GOP Hold
October 27, 2006	Shaw +1.9	Weak GOP Hold
October 23, 2006	Shaw +3.2	Weak GOP Hold
October 16, 2006	Shaw +1.9	Weak GOP Hold
October 13, 2006	Shaw +2.3	Weak GOP Hold
September 7, 2006	Shaw +3.7	Weak GOP Hold
July 10, 2006	Shaw +3.0	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Hold

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Jeff Miller (R)-inc vs. Joe Roberts (D)

District 2: Allen Boyd (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 3: Corrine Brown (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 4: Ander Crenshaw (R)-inc vs. Robert Harms (D)

District 5: Virginia Brown-Waite (R)-inc vs. John Russell (D)

District 6: Cliff Stearns (R)-inc vs. David Bruderly (D)

District 7: John Mica (R)-inc vs. John Chagnon (D)

District 8: Richard Keller (R)-inc vs. Charlie Stuart (D)

District 9: OPEN: G. Bilirakis (R) vs. P. Busansky (D) - possible competitive race

District 10: Bill Yound (R)-inc vs. Samm Simpson (D)

District 11: OPEN: Kathy Castor (D) vs. Eddie Adams (R)

District 12: Adam Putnam (R)-inc (unopposed)

District 14: Connie Mack, IV (R)-inc vs. Robert Neeld (D)

District 15: David Weldon (R)-inc vs. Bob Bowman (D)

District 17: Kendrick Meek (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)-inc vs. David Patlak (D)

District 19: Robert Wexler (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 20: Debbie Schultz (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)-inc vs. Frank Gonzalez (D)

District 23: Alcee Hastings (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 24: Tom Feeney (R)-inc vs. Clint Curtis (D)

District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R)-inc vs. Michael Calderin (D)

Election Timeline

May 12, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

September 5, 2006 - First primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	1 GOP, 1 DEM
Representatives	18 GOP, 7 DEM
State Government
Governor	GOP
Lt. Governor - tied to Governor	GOP
State Senate - GOP control	26 GOP, 14 DEM
State House - GOP control	84 GOP, 36 DEM