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Hawaii
Latest News and Updates
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Akaka +3 (down 1) - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Lingle +40 (down 3) - 10/23/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Akaka +4 (down 7) - 10/07/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 09/25/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/20/06
Conservative Ranking
Hawaii is the 10th least conservative state, voting
11.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Hawaii is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Hawaii ranks 21st among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: DEM incumbent Daniel Akaka is up for a fourth term in 2006. He faced strong primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Cynthia Thielen - Hawaii State Representative 
Democrat Candidates
Daniel Akaka - Incumbent
Edward Case - Hawaii Representative to the U.S. House
Brian Evans
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Daniel Akaka 23.3
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Thielen |
Akaka |
| Rasmussen** |
08/06 |
30% |
58% |
** - poll measured Akaka against Jerry Coffee |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
28.0 |
80% |
22.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
3 |
15% |
0.5 |
| State partisanship |
8.7 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| October 27, 2006 |
Akaka +23.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Akaka +23.4 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Akaka +24.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Linda Lingle is running for re-election for the first time in 2006. She
faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Linda Lingle - Incumbent
George Berish
Democrat Candidates
Brickman Galuteria - Chair, Hawaii Democratic Party
Randall Iwase - Chair, Hawaii State Labor Relations Board
Harry Kim - Mayor of Hawaii County
Frank DeLima
William Aila, Jr.
Scott Belford
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Linda Lingle +36.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Lingle |
Iwase |
| SurveyUSA |
05/18 |
66% |
27% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
39.0 |
80% |
31.2 |
| Incumbent approval |
40 |
15% |
6.0 |
| State partisanship |
-8.7 |
5% |
-0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| October 23, 2006 |
Lingle +36.8 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Lingle +37.2 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Neil Abercrombie (D)-inc vs. Noah Hough, II (R)
District 2: OPEN: Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Robert Hogue (R)
Election Timeline
July 25, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 23, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
5 GOP, 20 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
10 GOP, 41 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Linda Lingle (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: James "Duke" Aiona (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Daniel Inouye (D) - 8th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Daniel Akaka (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Neil Abercrombie (D) - 9th term
House District 2: Edward Case (D) - 2nd term (running for Senate)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Idaho
Previous Stop: Georgia
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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