Idaho is the 3rd most conservative state, voting
35.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Idaho is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Idaho ranks 11th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
OPEN SEAT: Republican Jim Risch became Governor in May, 2006. Former GOP Governor Dirk Kempthorne
stepped down to become U.S. Secretary of the Interior.
GOP Candidates
C.L. "Butch" Otter - Idaho Representative to the U.S. House
Dan Adamson
Walt Bayes
Jack Alan Johnson
Democrat Candidates
Jerry Brady - Publisher
Lee Chaney, Sr.
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Butch Otter +3.2
Polling Data
Polling Firm
Date
Otter
Brady
Mason-Dixon
10/30
44%
43%
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
Index
Raw value
Weight
Factor
Head-to head polls
1.0
90%
0.9
Incumbent approval
8
5%
0.4
State partisanship
38.1
5%
1.9
Projection History
Date
Projection
Rating
October 30, 2006
Otter +3.2
Weak GOP Hold
October 23, 2006
Otter +31.1
Strong GOP Hold
September 25, 2006
Otter +31.0
Strong GOP Hold
August 27, 2006
Otter +31.8
Strong GOP Hold
July 23, 2006
Otter +32.0
Strong GOP Hold
July 11, 2006
Otter +32.1
Strong GOP Hold
Preliminary
-----
Strong GOP Hold
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: OPEN: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) - possible competitive race
District 2: Mike Simpson (R)-inc vs. Jim Hansen (D)
Election Timeline
March 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 23, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
National Delegation
Senators
2 GOP
Representatives
2 GOP
State Government
Governor
GOP
Lt. Governor
GOP
State Senate - GOP control
28 GOP, 7 DEM
State House - GOP control
57 GOP, 13 DEM
Current Office Holders
Governor: James Risch (R) - partial term
Lt. Governor: Mark Ricks (R) - partial term
Senior Senator: Larry Craig (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Michael Crapo (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)
