Iowa
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Gov: Research 2000: Culver 50%, Nussle 45% - 11/02/06
CD-1: Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
CD-1: Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Vilsack +11 (down 8) - 10/23/06
Gov: Research 2000: Culver 49%, Nussle 44% - 10/19/06
Gov: Selzer and Co.: Culver 46%, Nussle 39% - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-1: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
CD-1: Bennett Petts (D): Braley 48%, Whalen 37% - 10/13/06
CD-1: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Nussle 45%, Culver 44% - 10/10/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Vilsack +19 (up 11) - 09/25/06
Gov: Selzer and Co.: Culver 44%, Nussle 44% - 09/19/06
CD-1: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/19/06
CD-1: Selzer and Co.: Braley 44%, Whalen 37% - 09/19/06
Gov: KCCI: Culver 48%, Nussle 43% - 09/14/06
CD-3: KCCI: Boswell 52%, Lamberti 41% - 09/14/06
CD-1: Constituent Dynamics: Braley 53%, Whalen 41% - 09/07/06
CD-3: Constituent Dynamics: Boswell 54%, Lamberti 43% - 09/07/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/04/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Culver 42%, Nussle 40% - 09/04/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Vilsack +8 (unchanged) - 08/27/06
CD-3: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak DEM Hold - 08/09/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Culver 41%, Nussle 38% - 08/03/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Vilsack +8 (down 7) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/12/06
Conservative Ranking
Iowa is the 31st most conservative state, voting
1.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Iowa's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Iowa ranks 29th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
OPEN SEAT: DEM incumbent Tom Vilsack is retiring after a 2nd term.
GOP Candidates
Jim Nussle - Iowa Representative to the U.S. House 
Bob Vander Plaats - 2002 Primary Candidate for Iowa Governor
Democrat Candidates
Chet Culver - Iowa Secretary of State
Ed Fallon - Iowa State Representative
Mike Blouin - Director, Iowa Department of Economic Development
Patty Judge - Iowa Secretary of Agriculture
Saleh Mohamed - Chemical Engineer
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Chet Culver +6.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Nussle |
Culver |
| Selzer & Co. |
11/03 |
43% |
52% |
| Research 2000 |
10/31 |
45% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
7.0 |
90% |
6.3 |
| Incumbent approval |
10 |
5% |
0.5 |
| State partisanship |
-0.7 |
5% |
-0.04 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Culver +6.8 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| November 2, 2006 |
Culver +4.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Culver +3.8 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Culver +4.2 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Culver +3.6 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 10, 2006 |
Culver +2.1 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Culver +3.0 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 19, 2006 |
Culver +2.5 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 14, 2006 |
Culver +3.5 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 4, 2006 |
Culver +2.2 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 3, 2006 |
Culver +5.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| July 23, 2006 |
Culver +6.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| July 11, 2006 |
Culver +7.0 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 1
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Jim Nussle is running for the Iowa Governorship in
2006.
GOP Candidates
Bill Dix - Iowa State Representative
Brain Kennedy - Former Chairman, Iowa GOP
Mike Whalen - Businessman
Democrat Candidates
Bruce Braley - Former President, Iowa Trial Lawyer's Association
Bill Gluba - Former Iowa State Senator
Rick Dickinson - Director, Iowa Economic Development
Denny Heath
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Bruce Braley +8.4 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/21 |
Braley by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/31 |
Braley by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Larry Sabato |
10/24 |
Braley by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
11/06 |
Braley by 4 (Leans DEM) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Whalen |
Braley |
| Selzer & Co. |
11/03 |
35% |
56% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-4.0 |
70% |
-2.8 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-21.0 |
25% |
-5.3 |
| District partisanship |
-7 |
5% |
-0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| November 1, 2006 |
Braley +8.4 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| November 1, 2006 |
Braley +3.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 24, 2006 |
Braley +4.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Braley +4.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Braley +4.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 19, 2006 |
Braley +5.8 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 7, 2006 |
Braley +4.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 12, 2006 |
Braley +1.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Gain |
District 3
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Leonard Boswell (D)-inc vs. Jeff Lamberti (R) - possible competitive race
District 2: Jim Leach (R)-inc vs. David Loebsack (D) - possible competitive race
District 4: Tom Latham (R)-inc vs. Seldon Spencer (D)
District 5: Steve King (R)-inc vs. Joyce Schulte (D)
Election Timeline
March 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 1 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate |
25 GOP, 25 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
51 GOP, 49 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Tom Vilsack (D) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Sally Pederson (D) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Tom Harkin (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Chuck Grassley (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Jim Nussle (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)
House District 2: Jim Leach (R) - 15th term
House District 3: Leonard Boswell (D) - 5th term
House District 4: Tom Latham (R) - 6th term
House District 5: Steve King (R) - 2nd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Kansas
Previous Stop: Indiana
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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