Kentucky
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-3: SurveyUSA: Yarmuth 52%, Northup 44% - 11/02/06
CD-4: Constituent Dynamics: Lucas 50%, Davis 46% - 10/31/06
CD-3: Courier Journal: Northup 48%, Yarmuth 42% - 10/30/06
CD-3: Constituent Dynamics: Yarmuth 52%, Northup 46% - 10/30/06
CD-4: SurveyUSA: Davis 46%, Lucas 44% - 10/25/06
CD-3: Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
CD-3: SurveyUSA: Yarmuth 48%, Northup 47% - 10/20/06
CD-3: Cooper & Secrest: Northup 45%, Yarmuth 44% - 10/19/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-3: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
CD-3: Constituent Dynamics: Northup 48%, Yarmuth 48% - 10/13/06
CD-3: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-4: Constituent Dynamics: Davis 49%, Lucas 46% - 10/13/06
CD-4: SurveyUSA: Davis 47%, Lucas 44% - 10/11/06
CD-3: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/02/06
CD-3: SurveyUSA: Northup 50%, Yarmuth 44% - 10/02/06
CD-4: SurveyUSA: Lucas 48%, Davis 44% - 09/20/06
CD-4: Constituent Dynamics: Davis 49%, Lucas 46% - 09/07/06
CD-4: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/14/06
CD-4: SurveyUSA: Davis 46%, Lucas 44% - 08/14/06
CD-3: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
CD-4: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 07/26/06
CD-4: SurveyUSA: Lucas 50%, Davis 41% - 07/26/06
Tracking initiated - 07/12/06
Conservative Ranking
Kentucky is the 14th most conservative state, voting
17.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Kentucky ranks 7th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
District 3
Incumbent: Republican Anne Northup seeks a 6th term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Anne Northup - Incumbent 
Democrat Candidates
John Yarmuth - Former Newspaper Publisher
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Anne Northup +0.7
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Northup by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/06 |
Northup by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/24 |
Northup by 4 (Lean GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Northup |
Yarmuth |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
45% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
2.0 |
70% |
1.4 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-5.0 |
25% |
-1.3 |
| District partisanship |
10.0 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Northup +0.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 2, 2006 |
Northup +1.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Northup +2.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 24, 2006 |
Northup +3.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Northup +4.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Northup +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Northup +4.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Northup +4.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Northup +5.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Northup +5.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 9, 2006 |
Northup +4.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
District 4
Incumbent: Freshman Republican Geoff Davis seeks a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Geoff Davis - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Ken Lucas - Former Kentucky Representative to the U.S. House
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Geoff Davis +3.1
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Davis by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
07/19 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Lucas by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
11/06 |
Davis by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Davis |
Lucas |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
49% |
43% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
1.0 |
70% |
0.7 |
| Head-to-head polls |
6.0 |
25% |
1.5 |
| District partisanship |
18.5 |
5% |
0.9 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Davis +3.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Davis +0.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Davis +2.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Davis +2.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Davis +3.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Davis +2.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Davis +1.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Davis +1.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 7, 2006 |
Davis +3.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 14, 2006 |
Davis +1.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| July 26, 2006 |
Lucas +1.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Tom Barlow (D)
District 2: Ron Lewis (R)-inc vs. Mike Weaver (D) - possible competitive race
District 5: Hal Rogers (R)-inc vs. Kenneth Stepp (D)
District 6: Ben Chandler (D)-inc vs. Elaine Sue Carlson (R)
Election Timeline
January 31, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 16, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
5 GOP, 1 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
21 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND |
| State House - DEM control |
44 GOP, 56 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Ernie Fletcher (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2007
Lt. Governor: Stephen Pence (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Mitch McConnell (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Jim Bunning (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Edward Whitfield (R) - 6th term
House District 2: Ron Lewis (R) - 7th term
House District 3: Anne Northrup (R) - 5th term
House District 4: Geoff Davis (R) - 1st term
House District 5: Hal Rogers (R) - 13th term
House District 6: Ben Chandler (D) - 1st full term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Louisiana
Previous Stop: Kansas
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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