Maine
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Gov: Rasmussen: Baldacci 45%, Woodcock 31% - 11/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Snowe +54 (up 5) - 10/27/06
Sen: Critical Insights: Snowe 74%, Bright 14% - 10/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/27/06
Gov: Critical Insights: Baldacci 42%, Woodcock 25% - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 10/24/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/23/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Baldacci -12 (down 4) - 10/23/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Snowe 70%, Bright 24% - 10/19/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/19/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 34% - 10/19/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Snowe +49 (up 1) - 10/07/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 09/29/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Baldacci -8 (down 2) - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Baldacci -6 (up 2) - 08/27/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Baldacci 43%, Woodcock 42% - 08/22/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Snowe 68%, Bright 20% - 08/21/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Snowe +48 (unchanged) - 08/18/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 08/03/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Snowe 69%, Bright 22% - 08/02/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Baldacci 43%, Woodcock 37% - 08/02/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Snowe +48 (up 5) - 07/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Baldacci -8 (up 3) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/12/06
Conservative Ranking
Maine is the 9th least conservative state, voting
11.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maine is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Maine ranks 44th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Olympia Snowe is seeking a third term in 2006. She faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Olympia Snowe - Incumbent 
Democrat Candidates
Jean Hay Bright - Perennial Candidate
Eric Mehnert - Attorney
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Olympia Snowe +55.7
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Snowe |
Bright |
| Critical Insights |
10/27 |
74% |
14% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
60.0 |
80% |
48.0 |
| Incumbent approval |
54 |
15% |
8.1 |
| State partisanship |
-9.0 |
5% |
-0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Snowe +55.7 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Snowe +50.1 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Snowe +43.7 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Snowe +45.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| August 21, 2006 |
Snowe +45.2 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| August 2, 2006 |
Snowe +44.4 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Snowe +38.8 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| July 12, 2006 |
Snowe +38.0 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: DEM incumbent John Baldacci is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced only token
primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Chandler Woodcock - Maine State Senator
Dave Emery - Former Maine Representative to the U.S House
Peter Mills - Maine State Senator
Democrat Candidates
John Baldacci - Incumbent
Christopher Miller
Independent Candidates
Alex Hammer - Internet Publisher
Party nominee -
Election Projection: John Baldacci +6.7
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Woodcock |
Baldacci |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
30% |
36% |
| Rasmussen |
10/29 |
31% |
45% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
10.0 |
80% |
8.0 |
| Incumbent approval |
-12 |
15% |
-1.8 |
| State partisanship |
9.0 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Baldacci +6.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Baldacci +8.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Baldacci +7.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Baldacci +4.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Baldacci +5.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Baldacci +3.3 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Baldacci +0.4 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 22, 2006 |
Baldacci +0.1 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 2, 2006 |
Baldacci +0.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| July 12, 2006 |
Wookcock +1.2 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Tom Allen (D)-inc vs. Darlene Curley (R)
District 2: Michael Michaud (D)-inc vs. Laurence D'Amboise
Election Timeline
March 15, 2006 - Deadline to file for primary
June 1, 2006 - Deadline to file as independent
June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - DEM control |
16 GOP, 19 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
73 GOP, 74 DEM, 4 other |
Current Office Holders
Governor: John Baldacci (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Olympia Snowe (R) - term, up for re-election in 2006
Junior Senator: Susan Collins (R) - term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Tom Allen (D) - 5th term
House District 2: Michael Michaud (D) - 2nd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Maryland
Previous Stop: Louisiana
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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