Minnesota
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 11/02/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 40% - 11/02/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 43% - 11/02/06
CD-1: Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
CD-1: Constituent Dynamics: Gutknecht 50%, Walz 47% - 10/31/06
CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Bachman 47%, Wetterling 44% - 10/30/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Dayton -11 (down 6) - 10/07/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Klobuchar 54%, Kennedy 39% - 10/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/27/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Hatch 45%, Pawlenty 44% - 10/27/06
CD-6: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/26/06
CD-6: SurveyUSA: Bachman 49%, Wetterling 43% - 10/26/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 10/25/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Klobuchar 55%, Kennedy 39% - 10/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Hatch 45%, Pawlenty 44%, Hutchinson 7% - 10/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/23/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Pawlenty -7 (down 24) - 10/23/06
CD-1: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
CD-6: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
CD-6: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/17/06
CD-6: Star Tribune: Wetterling 48%, Bachman 40% - 10/13/06
Sen: Star Tribune: Klobuchar 55%, Kennedy 32% - 10/16/06
Gov: Star Tribune: Hatch 46%, Pawlenty 37% - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Wetterling 50%, Bachman 45% - 10/13/06
CD-6: SurveyUSA: Bachman 47%, Wetterling 44% - 10/10/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Klobuchar 54%, Kennedy 36% - 10/09/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 42% - 10/09/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Dayton -5 (up 2) - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Klobuchar 51%, Kennedy 43% - 09/29/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Pawlenty 45%, Hatch 44% - 09/29/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Klobuchar 52%, Kennedy 37% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Pawlenty +17 (up 3) - 09/25/06
Sen: University of Minnesota: Klobuchar 52%, Kennedy 36% - 09/22/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Pawlenty 42%, Hatch 39% - 09/22/06
Gov: University of Minnesota: Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 42% - 09/21/06
CD-6: SurveyUSA: Bachman 50%, Wetterling 41% - 09/19/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 40% - 09/04/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 40% - 09/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Dayton -7 (up 2) - 08/18/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 38% - 08/08/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Dayton -9 (up 1) - 07/26/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 42% - 07/25/06
Sen: Star Tribune: Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 31% - 07/17/06
Sen: Tracking Initiated - 07/14/06
Conservative Ranking
Minnesota is the 15th least conservative state, voting
6.0% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Minnesota's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Minnesota ranks 25th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
OPEN SEAT: Freshman DEM incumbent Mark Dayton is retiring in 2007.
GOP Candidates
Mark Kennedy - Minnesota Representative to the U.S. House 
John Uldrich
Harold Shudlick
Democrat (DFL) Candidates
Amy Klobuchar - Hennepin County Attorney
Darryl Stanton
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Amy Klobuchar +15.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Kennedy |
Klobuchar |
| Rasmussen |
11/01 |
40% |
54% |
| Univ. of Minnesota |
10/28 |
33% |
55% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
18.0 |
90% |
16.2 |
| Incumbent approval |
-11 |
5% |
-0.6 |
| State partisanship |
3.5 |
5% |
0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Klobuchar +15.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Klobuchar +11.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Klobuchar +15.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Klobuchar +17.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Klobuchar +14.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 9, 2006 |
Klobuchar +12.8 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Klobuchar +11.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 29, 2006 |
Klobuchar +9.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Klobuchar +10.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 22, 2006 |
Klobuchar +9.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 4, 2006 |
Klobuchar +7.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 1, 2006 |
Klobuchar +6.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Klobuchar +10.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 8, 2006 |
Klobuchar +10.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| July 25, 2006 |
Klobuchar +7.8 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| July 17, 2006 |
Klobuchar +9.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty is seeking a second term in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Tim Pawlenty - Incumbent
Sue Jeffers
Democrat (DFL) Candidates
Mike Hatch - Minnesota Attorney General
Ole Savior
Becky Lourey - Minnesota State Senator
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Mike Hatch +3.6 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Pawlenty |
Hatch |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
37% |
46% |
| Univ. of Minnesota |
10/31 |
39% |
45% |
| Rasmussen |
10/27 |
44% |
45% |
| SurveyUSA |
10/25 |
44% |
45% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-3.0 |
80% |
-2.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
-7 |
15% |
-1.1 |
| State partisanship |
-3.5 |
5% |
-0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Hatch +3.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 2, 2006 |
Hatch +3.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Hatch +4.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 25, 2006 |
Hatch +5.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 23, 2006 |
Hatch +3.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Pawlenty +0.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 9, 2006 |
Pawlenty +2.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 29, 2006 |
Pawlenty +2.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Pawlenty +3.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 22, 2006 |
Pawlenty +3.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 21, 2006 |
Pawlenty +2.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Pawlenty +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 1
Incumbent: Republican Gil Gutknecht is seeking re-election to a 7th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Gil Gutknecht Jr - Incumbent
Democrat (DFL) Candidates
Tim Walz
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Gil Gutknecht +2.2
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
10/31 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Gutknecht by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/21 |
Gutknecht by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Gutknecht |
Walz |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
50% |
47% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
1.5 |
70% |
1.1 |
| Head-to-head polls |
3.0 |
25% |
0.8 |
| District partisanship |
7.5 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Gutknecht +2.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Gutknecht +3.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Gutknecht +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Gutknecht +3.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
District 6
OPEN SEAT: Republican Mark Kennedy is retiring after 3 terms in 2007. He is running for the U.S. Senate.
GOP Candidates
Michele Bachmann - Minnesota State Senator
Democrat (DFL) Candidates
Patty Wetterling
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Michele Bachman +2.9
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/21 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Bachman by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
08/09 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Bachman |
Wetterling |
| SurveyUSA |
11/03 |
49% |
42% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
0.5 |
70% |
0.4 |
| Head-to-head polls |
7.0 |
25% |
1.8 |
| District partisanship |
15 |
5% |
0.8 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Bachman +2.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Bachman +2.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Bachman +0.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Wetterling +2.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 17, 2006 |
Wetterling +2.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Bachman +0.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 10, 2006 |
Bachman +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Bachman +3.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 19, 2006 |
Bachman +4.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Bachman +2.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 2: John Kline (R)-inc vs. Coleen Rowley (D)
District 3: Jim Ramstad (R)-inc vs. Wendy Wilde (D)
District 4: Betty McCollum (D)-inc vs. Obi Sium (R)
District 5: OPEN: Keith Elison (D)-inc vs. Alan Fine (R)
District 7: Collin Peterson (D)-inc vs. Michael Barrett (R)
District 8: James Oberstar (D)-inc vs. Rod Grams (R)
Election Timeline
July 18, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 4 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
29 GOP, 38 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
68 GOP, 66 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Tim Pawlenty (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Carol Molnau (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Mark Dayton (D) - 1st term, retiring in 2007
Junior Senator: Norm Coleman (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Gil Gutknetch Jr. (R) - 6th term
House District 2: John Kline (R) - 2nd term
House District 3: Jim Ramstad (R) - 8th term
House District 4: Betty McCollum (D) - 3rd term
House District 5: Martin Sabo (D) - 14th term (retiring)
House District 6: Mark Kennedy (R) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
House District 7: Collin Peterson (D) - 8th term
House District 8: James Oberstar (D) - 16th term (might retire)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Mississippi
Previous Stop: Michigan
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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