Missouri
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 11/01/06
Sen: Rasmussen: McCaskill 48%, Talent 47% - 11/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: McCaskill 49%, Talent 46% - 11/01/06
Sen: CNN: Talent 49%, McCaskill 49% - 11/01/06
Sen: Research 2000: Talent 47%, McCaskill 47% - 10/30/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Talent 50%, McCaskill 48% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent -5 (down 9) - 10/27/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/25/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Talent 48%, McCaskill 45% - 10/25/06
Sen: LA Times/Bloomberg: Talent 48%, McCaskill 45% - 10/25/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: McCaskill 46%, Talent 43% - 10/25/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Talent 43%, McCaskill 42% - 10/16/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: McCaskill 51%, Talent 42% - 10/13/06
Sen: Rasmussen: McCaskill 44%, Talent 43% - 10/09/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent +4 (down 7) - 10/07/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: McCaskill 48%, Talent 45% - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Talent 43%, McCaskill 43% - 10/02/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: McCaskill 48%, Talent 47% - 09/15/06
Sen: Rasmussen: McCaskill 45%, Talent 42% - 09/15/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Talent 50%, McCaskill 44% - 09/04/06
Sen: Research 2000: McCaskill 47%, Talent 46% - 09/04/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Talent 46%, McCaskill 44% - 08/22/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/18/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent +11 (up 6) - 08/18/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: McCaskill 47%, Talent 46% - 08/16/06
Primary winners posted - 08/09/06
Sen: Rasmussen: McCaskill 45%, Talent 42% - 07/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent +5 (unchanged) - 07/26/06
Tracking initiated - 07/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Missouri is the 25th most conservative state, voting
4.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Missouri is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Missouri ranks 17th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Freshman GOP Incumbent Jim Talent seeks re-election in 2006. He faces only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jim Talent - Incumbent 
Isaiah Hair, Jr.
Joyce Lea
Roxie Fausnaught
Scott Babbitt
Democrat Candidates
Claire McCaskill - Missouri State Auditor
Bill Young
Mikhail Tsukerman
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Claire McCaskill +2.5 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Talent |
McCaskill |
| Rasmussen |
11/05 |
49% |
48% |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
42% |
51% |
| USA Today/Gallup |
11/04 |
45% |
49% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
45% |
46% |
| CNN |
10/29 |
49% |
49% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-2.6 |
80% |
-2.1 |
| Incumbent approval |
-5 |
15% |
-0.8 |
| State partisanship |
7.2 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Prediction |
McCaskill +2.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 1, 2006 |
McCaskill +0.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Talent +0.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Talent +0.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Talent +1.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
McCaskill +1.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
McCaskill +1.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 9, 2006 |
McCaskill +0.04 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
McCaskill +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 15, 2006 |
Talent +2.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 4, 2006 |
Talent +3.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 22, 2006 |
Talent +2.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Talent +0.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 16, 2006 |
McCaskill +0.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 31, 2006 |
McCaskill +2.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 13, 2006 |
McCaskill +0.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Lacy Clay Jr. (D)-inc vs. Mark Byrne (R)
District 2: Todd Akin (R)-inc vs. George Weber (D)
District 3: Russ Carnahan (D)-inc vs. David Bertelsen (R)
District 4: Ike Skelton (D)-inc vs. James Noland (R)
District 5: Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D)-inc vs. Jacob Turk (R)
District 6: Samuel Graves, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Sara Jo Shettles (D)
District 7: Roy Blunt (R)-inc vs. Jack Truman (D)
District 8: Jo Ann Emerson (R)-inc vs. Veronica Hambacker (D)
District 9: Kenny Hulshof (R)-inc vs. Duane Burghard (D)
Election Timeline
March 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
5 GOP, 4 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
22 GOP, 11 DEM, 1 vacant |
| State House - GOP control |
96 GOP, 64 DEM, 3 vacant |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Matt Blunt- 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Lt. Governor: Peter Kinder - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Senior Senator: Kit Bond - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Jim Talent - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Lacy Clay Jr. (D) - 3rd term
House District 2: Todd Akin (R) - 3rd term
House District 3: Russ Carnahan (D) - 1st term
House District 4: Ike Skelton (D) - 15th term
House District 5: Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D) - 1st term
House District 6: Samuel Graves, Jr. (R) - 3rd term
House District 7: Roy Blunt (R) - 5th term
House District 8: Jo Ann Emerson (R) - 5th term
House District 9: Kenny Hulshof (R) - 5th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Montana
Previous Stop: Mississippi
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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