Montana
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 11/02/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 50%, Burns 46% - 11/02/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 51%, Burns 48% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Burns -16 (up 5) - 10/27/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Tester 46%, Burns 43% - 10/25/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 48%, Burns 46% - 10/20/06
Sen: Montana State University: Tester 47%, Burns 36% - 10/19/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 50%, Burns 44% - 10/13/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Burns -21 (down 5) - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Tester 47%, Burns 40% - 10/02/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 50%, Burns 43% - 09/25/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/18/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Tester 52%, Burns 43% - 09/18/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Tester 48%, Burns 45% - 09/04/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Burns -16 (up 4) - 08/18/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 08/11/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Burns 47%, Tester 47% - 08/11/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Burns -20 (up 4) - 07/26/06
Tracking initiated - 07/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Montana is the 13th most conservative state, voting
18.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Montana is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Montana ranks 13th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOPer Conrad Burns is up for a 4th term 2006. He faced primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Conrad Burns - Incumbent 
Bob Kelleher
Bob Keenan - Montana State Senate Minority Leader
Daniel Neste Huffman
Democrat Candidates
John Morrison - Montana State Auditor
Jon Tester - Montana State Senator
Kenneth Marcure
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jon Tester +4.3 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Burns |
Tester |
| Rasmussen |
11/04 |
48% |
50% |
| USA Today/Gallup |
11/04 |
41% |
50% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
47% |
47% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-3.7 |
80% |
-2.9 |
| Incumbent approval |
-16 |
15% |
-2.4 |
| State partisanship |
20.5 |
5% |
1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Tester +4.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Tester +5.9 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 25, 2006 |
Tester +6.4 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 21, 2006 |
Tester +7.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 19, 2006 |
Tester +8.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Tester +7.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Tester +7.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 2, 2006 |
Tester +5.9 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
Tester +5.4 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 18, 2006 |
Tester +6.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| August 18, 2006 |
Tester +2.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 11, 2006 |
Tester +3.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 31, 2006 |
Tester +6.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| July 13, 2006 |
Tester +6.6 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Gain |
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Dennis Rehberg (R)-inc vs. Monica Lindeen (D)
Election Timeline
March 23, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
1 GOP |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
23 GOP, 27 DEM |
| State House |
50 GOP, 50 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Brian Schweitzer (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Lt. Governor: John Bohlinger (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (mixed ticket)
Senior Senator: Max Baucus (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Conrad Burns (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Dennis Rehberg (R) - 3rd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Nebraska
Previous Stop: Missouri
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
Site Traffic
|
