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Nevada
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Gibbons 44%, Titus 40% - 11/02/06
CD-3: Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ensign 54%, Carter 42% - 11/01/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Gibbons 48%, Titus 46% - 11/01/06
CD-2: Research 2000: Heller 48%, Derby 40% - 10/30/06
Sen: Research 2000: Ensign 55%, Carter 41% - 10/30/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Ensign +12 (down 7) - 10/27/06
Gov: Research 2000: Gibbons 47%, Titus 41% - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Guinn +15 (down 2) - 10/23/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ensign 50%, Carter 42% - 10/20/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Gibbons 51%, Titus 43% - 10/20/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: not competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
CD-2: Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Ensign +19 (up 7) - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Ensign 58%, Carter 35% - 09/26/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Gibbons 45%, Titus 36% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Guinn +17 (up 4) - 09/25/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ensign 50%, Carter 41% - 09/22/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Gibbons 49%, Titus 35% - 09/22/06
Gov: Research 2000: Gibbons 45%, Titus 38% - 09/18/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/15/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/15/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Ensign +12 (down 2) - 08/18/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Ensign 54%, Carter 33% - 08/14/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 08/08/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ensign 46%, Carter 39% - 08/08/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Ensign +14 (down 1) - 07/26/06
Sen: Tracking initiated (assumes Ensign/Carter match-up) - 07/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Nevada is the 28th most conservative state, voting
0.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nevada is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Nevada ranks 45th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Republican incumbent John Ensign is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
John Ensign - Incumbent 
Edward Hamilton
Democrat Candidates
Jack Carter - Son of Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter
Ruby Jee Tun
Party nominee -
Election Projection: John Ensign +12.3
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Ensign |
Carter |
| Rasmussen |
11/01 |
54% |
42% |
| Research 2000 |
10/30 |
55% |
41% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
13.0 |
80% |
10.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
12 |
15% |
1.8 |
| State partisanship |
2.6 |
5% |
0.1 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Ensign +12.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Ensign +12.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Ensign +10.7 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Ensign +8.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Ensign +15.8 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 26, 2006 |
Ensign +14.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 22, 2006 |
Ensign +9.1 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Ensign +13.1 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 14, 2006 |
Ensign +13.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 8, 2006 |
Ensign +13.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Ensign +23.4 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| July 13, 2006 |
Ensign +23.6 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOPer Kenny Guinn is term-limited and cannot seek a third term in 2006.
GOP Candidates
Lorraine Hunt - Lt. Governor of Nevada
Jim Gibbons - Nevada Representative to the U.S. House
Melody Damayo
Stanleigh Lusak
Bob Beers - Nevada State Senator
Democrat Candidates
Dina Titus - Nevada State Senator
Jim Gibson - Henderson Mayor
Leola McConnell
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jim Gibbons +4.5
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Gibbons |
Titus |
| Rasmussen |
10/30 |
48% |
46% |
| Mason-Dixon |
10/27 |
44% |
40% |
| Research 2000 |
10/25 |
47% |
41% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
4.0 |
90% |
3.6 |
| Incumbent approval |
15 |
5% |
0.8 |
| State partisanship |
2.6 |
5% |
0.1 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Gibbons +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Gibbons +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Gibbons +7.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Gibbons +8.5 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Gibbons +8.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Gibbons +10.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 22, 2006 |
Gibbons +10.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 18, 2006 |
Gibbons +7.1 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 16, 2006 |
Gibbons +8.9 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 2
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons is running for Nevada governor in 2006.
GOP Candidates
Dean Heller
Democrat Candidates
Jill Talbot Derby
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Dean Heller +7.1
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Heller by 8 (GOP Favored) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/13 |
Heller by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
10/13 |
Heller by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Heller by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Heller |
Derby |
| Mason-Dixon |
10/30 |
47% |
39% |
| Research 2000 |
10/25 |
48% |
40% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
5.0 |
45% |
2.3 |
| Head-to-head polls |
8.0 |
50% |
4.0 |
| District partisanship |
16.0 |
5% |
0.8 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Heller +7.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Heller +6.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Heller +5.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Heller +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
not competitive |
District 3
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Jon Porter is seeking re-election to a third term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jon Porter - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Tessa Hafen
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jon Porter 4.8
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/01 |
Porter by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/01 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Porter by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Porter by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Porter |
Hafen |
| Mason-Dixon |
10/30 |
46% |
39% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
51% |
44% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
2.0 |
45% |
0.9 |
| Head-to-head polls |
7.0 |
50% |
3.5 |
| District partisanship |
7.5 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Porter +4.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Porter +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
not competitive |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Shelley Berkley (D)-inc vs. Kenneth Wegner (R)
Election Timeline
May 19, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 15, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
2 GOP, 1 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
12 GOP, 9 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
15 GOP, 26 DEM, 1 vacant |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Kenny Guinn (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
Lt. Governor: Lorraine Hunt (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor (running for Governor)
Senior Senator: Harry Reid (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: John Ensign (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Shelley Berkley (D) - 4th term
House District 2: Jim Gibbons (R) - 5th term (running for Governor)
House District 3: Jon Porter (R) - 2nd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: New Hampshire
Previous Stop: Nebraska
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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