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New Hampshire
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-2: Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Lynch +52 (down 2) - 10/23/06
Gov: American Research Group: Lynch 59%, Coburn 29% - 09/29/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Lynch +54 (up 2) - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Lynch 73%, Coburn 23% - 09/20/06
Primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Gov: Research 2000: Lynch 72%, Coburn 21% - 09/18/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Lynch +52 (up 3) - 08/27/06
Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire: Lynch 67%, Coburn 13% - 08/04/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Lynch +49 (down 1) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/13/06
Conservative Ranking
New Hampshire is the 18th least conservative state, voting
3.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
New Hampshire ranks 48th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
Incumbent: Democrat John Lynch is seeking a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition
GOP Candidates
Jim Coburn - New Hampshire State Representative 
Democrat Candidates
John Lynch - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: John Lynch +42.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Coburn |
Lynch |
| ARG |
09/29 |
29% |
59% |
| SurveyUSA |
09/20 |
23% |
73% |
| Research 2000 |
09/18 |
21% |
72% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
43.7 |
80% |
34.9 |
| Incumbent approval |
52 |
15% |
7.8 |
| State partisanship |
1.3 |
5% |
0.1 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Lynch +42.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Lynch +42.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Lynch +43.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Lynch +48.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Lynch +48.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 18, 2006 |
Lynch +48.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Lynch +51.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 4, 2006 |
Lynch +50.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| July 23, 2006 |
Lynch +51.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| July 13, 2006 |
Lynch +51.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 2
Incumbent: Republican Charles Bass is seeking re-election to a 7th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Charles Bass - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Paul Hodes
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Paul Hodes +2.1
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Hodes by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Hodes by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Bass |
Hodes |
| Univ. of New Hampshire |
11/05 |
48% |
39% |
| Research 2000 |
11/02 |
47% |
46% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-1.0 |
45% |
-0.5 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-3.0 |
25% |
-0.8 |
| District partisanship |
7.5 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Hodes +2.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 1, 2006 |
Bass +3.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Jeb Bradley (R)-inc vs. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Election Timeline
June 16, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
2 GOP |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
17 GOP, 7 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
245 GOP, 152 DEM, 3 vac |
Current Office Holders
Governor: John Lynch (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Judd Gregg (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: John Sununu (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Jeb Bradley (R) - 2nd term
House District 2: Charles Bass (R) - 6th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: New Jersey
Previous Stop: Nevada
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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