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North Carolina
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Kissell 48%, Hayes 44% - 10/31/06
CD-11: Constituent Dynamics: Shuler 53%, Taylor 44% - 10/30/06
CD-8: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Hayes 49%, Kissell 33% - 10/19/06
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/19/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Kissell 51%, Hayes 44% - 10/13/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-8: Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
CD-11: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
CD-11: Constituent Dynamics: Shuler 51%, Taylor 43% - 10/13/06
CD-11: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-11: Pundit rating change - 10/07/06
CD-11: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
CD-11: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06
CD-11: Constituent Dynamics: Shuler 50%, Taylor 47% - 09/07/06
Tracking initiated - 07/14/06
Conservative Ranking
North Carolina is the 21st most conservative state, voting
10.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Carolina's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
North Carolina ranks 30th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
District 8
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Robin Hayes is seeking a 9th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Robin Hayes - Incumbent 
John Armor - Attorney and Author
Democrat Candidates
Larry Kissell
Clyde Morgan - Contractor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Robin Hayes +1.6
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Hayes by 16 (Solid GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/13 |
Hayes by 8 (Likely GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
11/02 |
Hayes by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Hayes by 8 (Likely GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Hayes |
Kissell |
| Elon University |
10/30 |
33% |
41% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
44% |
48% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
9.0 |
45% |
4.1 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-6.0 |
50% |
-3.0 |
| District partisanship |
10.0 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Hayes +1.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Hayes +6.5 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Hayes +5.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Hayes +3.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
District 11
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Charles Taylor is seeking a 9th term in 2006. He faced primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Charles Taylor - Incumbent
John Armor - Attorney and Author
Democrat Candidates
Heath Shuler - Former NFL Quarterback
Clyde Morgan - Contractor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Heath Shuler +3.6 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Shuler by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
06/29 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Shuler by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/07 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Taylor |
Shuler |
| OnPoint (D) |
10/30 |
43% |
52% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
44% |
53% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
0.0 |
70% |
0.0 |
| Head-to-head polls** |
-6.0 |
50% |
-3.0 |
| District partisanship |
12.0 |
5% |
0.6 |
| Other issues |
Adjustment: |
-0.5 |
| ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3% |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Shuler +3.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Shuler +2.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Shuler +1.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Shuler +1.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Taylor +1.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 7, 2006 |
Shuler +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 14, 2006 |
Taylor +1.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: G.K. Butterfield (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 2: Bob Etheridge (D)-inc vs. Dan Mansell (R)
District 3: Walter Jones, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Craig Weber (D)
District 4: David Price (D)-inc vs. Steven Acuff (R)
District 5: Virginia Foxx (R)-inc vs. Roger Sharpe (D)
District 6: Howard Coble (R)-inc vs. Rory Blake (D)
District 7: Mike McIntyre (D)-inc vs. Shirley Davis (R)
District 9: Sue Myrick (R)-inc vs. Bill Glass (D)
District 10: Patrick McHenry (R)-inc vs. Richard Carsner (D)
District 12: Melvin Watt (D)-inc vs. Ada Fisher (R)
District 13: Brad Miller (D)-inc vs. Vernon Robinson (R)
Election Timeline
February 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 2, 2006 - Primary elections
May 30, 2006 - Primary runoff
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
7 GOP, 6 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - DEM control |
20 GOP, 29 DEM, 1 vacant |
| State House - DEM control |
57 GOP, 63 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Mike Easley (D) - 2nd term, term limited in 2008
Lt. Governor: Beverly Perdue (D) - 2nd term, running for Governor in 2008
Senior Senator: Elizabeth Dole (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Richard Burr (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: G.K. Butterfield (D) - 2nd term
House District 2: Bob Etheridge (D) - 5th term
House District 3: Walter Jones, Jr. (R) - 6th term
House District 4: David Price (D) - 9th term
House District 5: Virginia Foxx (R) - 1st term
House District 6: Howard Coble (R) - 11th term
House District 7: Mike McIntyre (D) - 5th term
House District 8: Robin Hayes (R) - 4th term
House District 9: Sue Myrick (R) - 6th term
House District 10: Patrick McHenry (R) - 1st term
House District 11: Charles Taylor (R) - 8th term
House District 12: Melvin Watt (D) - 7th term
House District 13: Brad Miller (D) - 2nd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: North Dakota
Previous Stop: New York
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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