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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Ohio

Latest News and Updates

  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-2:  SurveyUSA:  Wuslin 48%, Schmidt 45% - 11/02/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  CNN:  Brown 53%, DeWine 43% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  CNN:  Strickland 59%, Blackwell 36% - 11/01/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
  • CD-1:  Constituent Dynamics:  Cranley 48%, Chabot 46% - 10/31/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Schmidt 51%, Wuslin 46% - 10/31/06
  • CD-1:  Grove Insights (D):  Cranley 49%, Chabot 40% - 10/27/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-15:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-18:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  DeWine -17 (down 9) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 54%, DeWine 43% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Strickland 58%, Blackwell 36% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Brown 57%, DeWine 37% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Strickland 62%, Blackwell 32% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Brown 48%, DeWine 40% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Strickland 54%, Blackwell 34% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  LA Times/Bloomberg:  Brown 47%, DeWine 39% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Taft -60 (down 2) - 10/23/06
  • CD-15:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/18/06
  • CD-2:  SurveyUSA:  Schmidt 48%, Wuslin 40% - 10/18/06
  • Sen:  University of Cincinnati:  Brown 52%, DeWine 45% - 10/18/06
  • Sen:  CBS/New York Times:  Brown 49%, DeWine 35% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Strickland 59%, Blackwell 32% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  University of Cincinnati:  Strickland 52%, Blackwell 38% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  CBS/New York Times:  Strickland 54%, Blackwell 29% - 10/18/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Brown 53%, DeWine 41% - 10/17/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 46%, DeWine 41% - 10/16/06
  • CD-15:  Pundit rating change - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to possibly competitive - 10/13/06
  • CD-1:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Wuslin 48%, Schmidt 45% - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
  • CD-15:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-15:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kilroy 53%, Price 41% - 10/13/06
  • CD-15:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-18:  Constituent Dynamics:  Space 51%, Padgett 42% - 10/13/06
  • CD-18:  Greenberg Quinlan (D):  Space 48%, Padgett 41% - 10/13/06
  • CD-18:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Brown 54%, DeWine 40% - 10/12/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Strickland 60%, Blackwell 32% - 10/12/06
  • Sen:  Akron University:  DeWine 42%, Brown 42% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Akron University:  Strickland 47%, Blackwell 34% - 10/11/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • CD-1:  Tracking initiated - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  DeWine -8 (down 2) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Strickland 52%, Blackwell 40% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 49%, DeWine 41% - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Brown 45%, DeWine 43% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Strickland 53%, Blackwell 36% - 10/02/06
  • CD-6:  SurveyUSA:  Wilson 54%, Blasdel 41% - 10/02/06
  • CD-18:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/29/06
  • Sen:  Columbus Dispatch:  Brown 47%, DeWine 42% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Columbus Dispatch:  Strickland 52%, Blackwell 33% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Taft -58 (up 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/22/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Brown 52%, DeWine 42% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Strickland 56%, Blackwell 35% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Strickland 54%, Blackwell 35% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  University of Cincinnati:  Brown 51%, DeWine 47% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  University of Cincinnati:  Strickland 50%, Blackwell 38% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Brown 45%, DeWine 44% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Strickland 55%, Blackwell 34% - 09/19/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 47%, DeWine 41% - 09/18/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Wilson 56%, Blasdel 40% - 09/07/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Brown 46%, DeWine 40% - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  USA Today/Gallup:  Strickland 52%, Blackwell 36% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 45%, DeWine 42% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Strickland 57%, Blackwell 32% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Taft -62 (down 1) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  DeWine -6 (down 6) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Brown 48%, DeWine 41% - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Strickland 57%, Blackwell 35% - 08/09/06
  • CD-15:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Brown 44%, DeWine 42% - 07/31/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Strickland 50%, Blackwell 39% - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  DeWine even (up 8) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  Columbus Dispatch:  Brown 45%, DeWine 37% - 07/24/06
  • Gov:  Columbus Dispatch:  Strickland 47%, Blackwell 27% - 07/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Taft -61 (unchanged) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking

    Ohio is the 29th most conservative state, voting for President Bush but 0.4% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Ohio ranks 39th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race

    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Mike DeWine is up for a 3rd term in 2006.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike DeWine - Incumbent  
  • William Pierce - Professor
  • David Smith - Financial Analyst

    Democrat Candidates

  • Sherrod Brown - Ohio Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Merrill Keiser, Jr. - Trucking Business Owner/Operator

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  Sherrod Brown +10.5 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date DeWine Brown
        SurveyUSA 11/05 42% 54%
        Univ. of Cincy 11/05 44% 56%
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 44% 50%
        Opinion Consultants 10/30 44% 51%
        CNN 10/29 43% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -9.4 80% -7.5
        Incumbent approval -17 15% -2.6
        State partisanship 2.1 5% 0.1
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Brown +10.5 Mod DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Brown +12.1 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Brown +11.6 Mod DEM Gain
        October 25, 2006 Brown +9.4 Mod DEM Gain
        October 18, 2006 Brown +9.9 Mod DEM Gain
        October 17, 2006 Brown +6.9 Mod DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Brown +5.8 Mod DEM Gain
        October 12, 2006 Brown +6.2 Mod DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Brown +5.6 Mod DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Brown +5.8 Mod DEM Gain
        October 5, 2006 Brown +5.5 Mod DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Brown +4.8 Weak DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Brown +5.5 Mod DEM Gain
        September 22, 2006 Brown +5.6 Mod DEM Gain
        September 20, 2006 Brown +4.7 Weak DEM Gain
        September 18, 2006 Brown +6.1 Mod DEM Gain
        September 4, 2006 Brown +5.8 Mod DEM Gain
        August 28, 2006 Brown +5.7 Mod DEM Gain
        August 18, 2006 Brown +6.1 Mod DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Brown +5.2 Mod DEM Gain
        July 31, 2006 Brown +5.5 Mod DEM Gain
        July 24, 2006 Brown +4.3 Weak DEM Gain
        July 14, 2006 DeWine +2.2 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Governor's Race

    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Bob Taft is term-limited in 2006 and cannot seek a 3rd term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ken Blackwell - Ohio Secretary of State  
  • Jim Petro - Ohio Attorney General

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ted Strickland - Ohio Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Bryan Flannery - Former Ohio State Representative

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  Strickland +20.4 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Blackwell Strickland
        SurveyUSA 11/05 38% 55%
        Univ. of Cincy 11/05 37% 59%
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 37% 56%
        Opinion Consultants 10/30 39% 55%
        CNN 10/29 36% 59%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -19.4 90% -17.5
        Incumbent approval -60 5% -3.0
        State partisanship 2.1 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Strickland +20.4 Strong DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Strickland +24.3 Strong DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Strickland +23.2 Strong DEM Gain
        October 25, 2006 Strickland +23.4 Strong DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Strickland +22.2 Strong DEM Gain
        October 18, 2006 Strickland +22.1 Strong DEM Gain
        October 12, 2006 Strickland +18.8 Strong DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Strickland +17.6 Strong DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Strickland +17.4 Strong DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Strickland +18.6 Strong DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Strickland +19.4 Strong DEM Gain
        September 22, 2006 Strickland +19.0 Strong DEM Gain
        September 20, 2006 Strickland +18.3 Strong DEM Gain
        September 19, 2006 Strickland +21.6 Strong DEM Gain
        September 4, 2006 Strickland +21.9 Strong DEM Gain
        August 28, 2006 Strickland +24.1 Strong DEM Gain
        August 27, 2006 Strickland +19.0 Strong DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Strickland +18.8 Strong DEM Gain
        July 31, 2006 Strickland +17.0 Strong DEM Gain
        July 24, 2006 Strickland +17.6 Strong DEM Gain
        July 14, 2006 Strickland +13.1 Mod DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races

    District 1

    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Steve Chabot is seeking a 7th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Steve Chabot  

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Cranley  

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  John Cranley +1.0 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/16 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/06 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Chabot by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Chabot Cranley
        Grove Insights (D) 10/27 40% 49%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 46% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.5 45% 0.2
        Head-to-head polls** -2.5 50% -1.3
        District partisanship 10.5 5% 0.5
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5
        ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Cranley +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Cranley +0.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Chabot +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Chabot +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Chabot +2.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Chabot +3.4 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    District 2

    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jean Schmidt is seeking a 1st full term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jean Schmidt  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Victoria Wulsin  

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  Jean Schmidt +0.6

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/27 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/31 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Wuslin by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Schmidt Wuslin
        SurveyUSA 10/31 45% 48%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 51% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 45% -0.2
        Head-to-head polls 1.0 50% 0.5
        District partisanship 15.5 5% 0.8
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Schmidt +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        November 2, 2006 Schmidt +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Schmidt +4.0 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Schmidt +4.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Schmidt +3.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Schmidt +3.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 18, 2006 Schmidt +5.6 Mod GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Schmidt +4.3 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive

    District 15

    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce is seeking an 8th term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Deborah Pryce - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Mary Jo Kilroy - Franklin County Commissioner  

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  Mary Jo Kilroy +4.0 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Kilroy by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/13 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Kilroy by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/16 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Pryce Kilroy
        Constituent Dynamics 10/10 41% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -1.5 70% -1.1
        Head-to-head polls -12.0 25% -3.0
        District partisanship 10.5 5% 0.5
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kilroy +4.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Kilroy +3.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 21, 2006 Kilroy +3.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Kilroy +3.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Kilroy +1.6 Weak DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Pryce +3.8 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    District 18

    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Robert Ney is not seeking re-election in 2006.  Though he won the GOP primary, he can be replaced on the ballot since he quit the race more than 80 days before the general election.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joy Padgett - Ohio State Senator  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Joe Sulzer - Chillicothe Mayor
  • Zack Space - Dover City Law Director  

    Party nominee -

    Election Projection:  Zack Space +4.1 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/27 Space by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/27 Space by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Space by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Space by 4 (Lean DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Padgett Space
        Greenberg Quinlan (D) 10/11 41% 48%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/10 42% 51%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -4.0 45% -1.8
        Head-to-head polls** -5.0 50% -2.5
        District partisanship 15.0 5% 0.8
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5
        ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Space +4.1 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Space +3.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Space +2.9 Weak DEM Gain
        September 29, 2006 Space +3.8 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 3:  Mike Turner (R)-inc vs. Stephanie Studebaker (D)
  • District 4:  OPEN:  Jim Jordan (R) vs. Richard Siferd (D)
  • District 5:  Paul Gillmor (R)-inc vs. Robin Weirauch (D)
  • District 6:  OPEN:  C. Wilson (D) vs. C. Blasdel (R)
  • District 7:  Dave Hobson (R)-inc vs. William Conner (D)
  • District 8:  John Boehner (R)-inc vs. Morton Meier (D)
  • District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D)-inc vs. Bradley Leavitt (R)
  • District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D)-inc vs. Michael Dovilla (R)
  • District 11:  Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D)-inc vs. Lindsey String (R)
  • District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R)-inc vs. Bob Shamansky (D)
  • District 13:  OPEN:  Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R)
  • District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R)-inc vs. Lewis Katz (D)
  • District 16:  Ralph Regula (R)-inc vs. Thomas Shaw (D)
  • District 17:  Tim Ryan (D)-inc  Don Manning (R)

    Election Timeline

  • February 16, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 2, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown

      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 12 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 11 DEM
        State House - GOP control 60 GOP, 39 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Bob Taft (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Bruce Johnson (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Mike DeWine (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  George Voinovich (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Steve Chabot (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Mike Turner (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Michael Oxley (R) - 13th term (retiring)
  • House District 5:  Paul Gillmor (R) - 9th term
  • House District 6:  Ted Strickland (D) - 6th term (running for Governor)
  • House District 7:  Dave Hobson (R) - 8th term
  • House District 8:  John Boehner (R) - 8th term
  • House District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D) - 12th term
  • House District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D) - 5th term
  • House District 11:  Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D) - 4th term
  • House District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 13:  Sherrod Brown (D) - 7th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R) - 5th term
  • House District 15:  Deborah Pryce (R) - 7th term
  • House District 16:  Ralph Regula (R) - 17th term
  • House District 17:  Tim Ryan (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 18:  Robert Ney (R) - 6th term

    Tour The 50 States

    Next Stop:  Oklahoma
    Previous Stop:  North Dakota

    Special Thanks to...

    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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    2004 Projection Results


    2006 Projections
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