Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

Oregon

Latest News and Updates

Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/30/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Kulongoski 51%, Saxton 44% - 10/30/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold - 10/26/06

Gov: Riley Research: Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 36% - 10/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Kulongoski -17 (up 4) - 10/23/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 10/05/06

Gov: Riley Research: Saxton 39%, Kulongoski 37% - 10/05/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 42% - 10/02/06

Gov: Oregonian/KATU: Kulongoski 39%, Saxton 34% - 09/29/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/25/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 38% - 09/25/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Kulongoski -21 (down 18) - 09/25/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Kulongoski -3 (up 13) - 08/27/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Kulongoski 49%, Saxton 35% - 08/22/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold - 08/03/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Kulongoski 45%, Saxton 35% - 08/03/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Kulongoski -16 (up 11) - 07/23/06

Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

Conservative Ranking

Oregon is the 14th least conservative state, voting 6.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oregon is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

Oregon ranks 47th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

No race in 2006

Governor's Race

Incumbent: Democrat Ted Kulongoski is seeking a 2nd term in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Kevin Mannix - Former Oregon State Representative and '02 Gov. Candidate

Ron Saxton - Former School Board Member

Jason Atkinson - Oregon State Senator

David Beem

Ames Cutright

William Spidal

Democrat Candidates

Ted Kulongoski - Incumbent

Jim Hill

Peter Sorenson

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Ted Kulongoski +3.3

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Saxton	Kulongoski
Oregonian	10/31	38%	45%
Rasmussen	10/28	44%	51%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	7.0	80%	5.6
Incumbent approval	-17	15%	-2.6
State partisanship	4.2	5%	0.2

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Kulongoski +3.3	Weak DEM Hold
October 30, 2006	Kulongoski +4.9	Weak DEM Hold
October 26, 2006	Kulongoski +6.5	Mod DEM Hold
October 23, 2006	Saxton +0.2	Weak GOP Gain
October 5, 2006	Saxton +0.8	Weak GOP Gain
October 2, 2006	Kulongoski +1.1	Weak DEM Hold
September 29, 2006	Kulongoski +2.7	Weak DEM Hold
September 25, 2006	Kulongoski +4.3	Weak DEM Hold
August 27, 2006	Kulongoski +10.9	Mod DEM Hold
August 22, 2006	Kulongoski +9.0	Mod DEM Hold
August 3, 2006	Kulongoski +5.8	Mod DEM Hold
July 23, 2006	Saxton +0.6	Weak GOP Gain
July 14, 2006	Saxton +2.2	Weak GOP Gain
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Hold

Competitive House Races

No competitive races in 2006

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: David Wu (D)-inc vs. Derrick Kitts (R)

District 2: Greg Walden (R)-inc vs. Carol Voisin (D)

District 3: Earl Blumenauer (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 4: Pete DeFazio (D)-inc vs. Jim Feldkamp (R)

District 5: Darlene Hooley (D)-inc vs. Mike Erickson (R)

Election Timeline

March 7, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

May 16, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	1 GOP, 1 DEM
Representatives	1 GOP, 4 DEM
State Government
Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	12 GOP, 18 DEM
State House - GOP control	33 GOP, 27 DEM