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Washington
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: University of Washington: Cantwell 53%, McGavick 41% - 11/02/06
CD-8: SurveyUSA: Reichert 51%, Burner 45% - 11/01/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Burner 49%, Reichert 47% - 10/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Cantwell 54%, McGavick 41% - 10/31/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Cantwell 52%, McGavick 44% - 10/31/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Cantwell 54%, McGavick 42% - 10/30/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Cantwell +5 (down 9) - 10/27/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Cantwell 52%, McGavick 37% - 10/25/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Cantwell 51%, McGavick 42% - 10/21/06
CD-8: SurveyUSA: Reichert 50%, Burner 47% - 10/19/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Cantwell 51%, McGavick 43% - 10/17/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Reichert 48%, Burner 45% - 10/13/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Cantwell +14 (down 3) - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Cantwell 50%, McGavick 40% - 10/02/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Cantwell 49%, McGavick 40% - 09/28/06
CD-8: SurveyUSA: Reichert 49%, Burner 46% - 09/28/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Cantwell 54%, McGavick 42% - 09/27/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Cantwell 48%, McGavick 42% - 09/25/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/20/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/20/06
Conservative Ranking
Washington is the 12th least conservative state, voting 9.6% less Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Washington is trending is DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Washington ranks 43rd among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Democrat Maria Cantwell is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006. She faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mike McGavick - Safeco CEO 
Brad Klippert - Former Congressional Candidate
William Chovil
Gordon Pross
Warren Hanson
Barry Massoudi
Democrat Candidates
Maria Cantwell - Incumbent
Hong Tran - Attorney
Michael Goodspaceguy Nelson
Mike The Mover
Mohammad Said
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Maria Cantwell +10.9
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
McGavick |
Cantwell |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
38% |
54% |
| Univ. of Washington |
11/02 |
41% |
53% |
| Strategic Vision |
10/31 |
44% |
52% |
| SurveyUSA |
10/29 |
41% |
54% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
12.3 |
80% |
9.8 |
| Incumbent approval |
5 |
15% |
0.8 |
| State partisanship |
7.2 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Cantwell +10.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Cantwell +10.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Cantwell +9.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Cantwell +9.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Cantwell +11.0 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 17, 2006 |
Cantwell +9.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Cantwell +9.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Cantwell +10.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 27, 2006 |
Cantwell +10.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Cantwell +10.4 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Cantwell +13.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
District 8
Incumbent: Freshman GOPer Dave Reichert is up for a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Dave Reichert - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Darcy Burner - Former Microsoft Executive
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Dave Reichert +1.5
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Reichert by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/06 |
Reichert by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Reichert by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/11 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Reichert |
Burner |
| SurveyUSA |
10/30 |
49% |
49% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
2.0 |
45% |
1.4 |
| Head-to-head polls |
0.0 |
50% |
0.0 |
| District partisanship |
1.0 |
5% |
0.1 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Reichert +1.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Reichert +1.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Reichert +0.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Reichert +1.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Reichert +1.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Reichert +1.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Reichert +2.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Reichert +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Jay Inslee (D)-inc vs. Larry Ishmael (R)
District 2: Rick Larsen (D)-inc vs. Doug Roulstone (R)
District 3: Brian Baird (D)-inc vs. Michael Messmore (R)
District 4: "Doc" Hastings (R)-inc vs. Richard Wright (D)
District 5: Cathy McMorris (R)-inc vs. Peter Goldmark (D)
District 6: Norman Dicks (D)-inc vs. Doug Cloud (R)
District 7: Jim McDermott (D)-inc vs. Steve Beren (R)
District 9: Adam Smith (D)-inc vs. Steve Cofchin (R)
Election Timeline
July 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 19, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
3 GOP, 6 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - DEM control |
23 GOP, 26 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
43 GOP, 55 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Christine Gregoire (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Lt. Governor: Brad Owen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Senior Senator: Patty Murray (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Maria Cantwell (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Jay Inslee (D) - 4th term
House District 2: Rick Larsen (D) - 3rd term
House District 3: Brian Baird (D) - 4th term
House District 4: "Doc" Hastings (R) - 6th term
House District 5: Cathy McMorris (R) - 1st term
House District 6: Norman Dicks (D) - 15th term (might retire)
House District 7: Jim McDermott (D) - 9th term (might retire)
House District 8: Dave Reichert (R) - 1st term
House District 9: Adam Smith (D) - 5th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: West Virginia
Previous Stop: Virginia
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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