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  Politics and Elections
Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Barack Obama re-elected; Election Projection 49/50; the polls weren't skewed - updated
(This post was published before many of the votes were counted.  See the update at the end for corrected information.)
Yesterday, Barack Obama received 10 million votes less than he did four years ago but still won the presidency for another term.  Remarkably, the much-maligned John McCain garnered 3 million more votes in 2008 than Mitt Romney did this year.  If someone had told me Monday that President Obama's vote total would come up 10 million short of his 2008 total, I would have been supremely confident in a Romney victory.  But Republicans, or maybe those who would vote Republican, just didn't show up.  It has often been said that in a democracy we get the government we deserve, and how true that is.

On the projection front, EP fared very well.  Only Florida went awry of my presidential projections.  The other 49 states and D.C. fell according to my numbers.  In the Senate, two races, one in North Dakota, the other in Montana, were won by Democrats when Election Projection showed the Republicans winning.  In the House, pending recounts, it looks like Election Projection will correctly call 423 out of 435 races (97.2%) with Democrats netting 6 seats instead of just 2 as I was projecting.  Finally, Montana was a sore spot again for me in the gubernatorial races.  It looks like that state will be my only incorrect call among statehouse contests.

In each case, the accuracy of Election Projection, I must say, is very high, but I also notice a trend.  The incorrect calls in all race categories favored Republicans.  Some may point to that and claim there's a bias in my projections.  To be sure, I am a conservative Republican and did feel the polls were overstating the performance of Democrats.  However, in the end, I made a conscious choice to side with my formula and, as I said I would do back in 2006, "trust the numbers."

So rather than a sign of bias, I think the way the numbers underestimated Democratic performance is attributable to something I never saw coming - Republican apathy.  Perhaps too many folks couldn't reconcile Romney's Mormon faith.  Maybe some people on our side succumbed to a sense of Obama's inevitability.  For whatever reason, Romney/Ryan couldn't even match what was a very weak GOP ticket in 2008.  That, to me, is one of the biggest storylines of this election.

Before I close, I'd like to leave you with a word of encouragement.  The apostle Paul in the book of Romans reaches out across the centuries with pointed relevance to the events of yesterday when he writes in chapter 13, "there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God."  I like to express it in these terms.  Before God said, "let there be light," He knew Barack Obama would be elected four years ago, and He knew Barack Obama would be re-elected yesterday.

Despite the fact that our guy lost, Mrs. Blogging Caesar and I woke up this morning with an abiding sense of peace knowing that God is still sovereign, He is still King of the universe, and no matter if our President is an agent of good or of evil, nothing will remove God from His throne.

Update:  I was a bit premature in noting such a large decrease in voters for both candidates.  Though the amounts were accurate at the time, there were still plenty of votes yet to be added to the totals.  As of the posting of this update at around 9pm Thursday, Barack Obama has received 61,112,143 votes to 58,122,514 for Mitt Romney.

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